$DRVN Cruising through the Driven Brands thesis | Kyle Mowery GrizzlyRock Capital

Driven Brands ($DRVN) puked on a February accounting restatement. Kyle Mowery (GrizzlyRock Capital) walks through why Take 5 remains a crown jewel and could be worth the entire EV of the company (making the franchise and autoglass businesses a free option). We also dig into how the April and May 8-Ks took the scary left-tail risks off the table, why Roark Capital (65% owner) might run a sale process later this year, and the bear case (corporate cost bloat, weakness in the non-Take-5 brands).

disclaimer: Andrew is long DRVN

Kyle's late 2024 DRVN podcast: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/grizzlyrock-capitals-kyle-mowery?utm_source=publication-search

[00:00:00] Intro and disclosures

[00:03:23] What is Driven Brands today

[00:05:14] Why the car wash divestiture sold so cheap

[00:09:19] Why Take 5 is the crown jewel

[00:11:15] EV risk and the US ICE car park

[00:13:21] Franchisee demand and unit growth

[00:15:31] Take 5 vs. Valvoline[00:18:13] The addbacks problem

[00:20:57] Inside the accounting restatement

[00:23:22] The cash adjustment

[00:28:50] The ATI revenue recognition issue

[00:30:12] Reading the April and May 8-Ks

[00:32:40] Debating adjusted EBITDA

[00:34:55] Corporate cost bloat

[00:37:54] Is this fraud? No

[00:39:49] Weakness in the non-Take-5 brands

[00:43:45] Sum-of-the-parts: Take 5 covers the debt

[00:46:30] Why public markets misprice the franchise brands

[00:48:04] Durability of franchise cash flows[00:50:14] Timing the resolution

[00:53:26] Roark Capital's strategic options

[00:57:40] Labor Day or Halloween?

[01:00:00] Capital cycle stories Kyle's watching

[01:03:02] Chinese supply pressure on industrials

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Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

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Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/