Can the yield curve still predict recessions?

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. In fact, the inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1969 ... until now. Today, are we saying goodbye to the inverted yield curve's flawless record? Related episodes: The inverted yield curve is screaming RECESSION ( Apple / Spotify ) Yield curve jitters Two Yield Curve Indicators For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org . Music by Drop Electric . Find us: TikTok , Instagram , Facebook , Newsletter . Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices NPR Privacy Policy