Reporting Season Stats Steady, Consumer Color, Top Charts In Our EU/ UK Meetings

Three big things you need to know: First, 4Q23 reporting season stats are similar to what we’ve described over the past few weeks with fewer earnings beats than last quarter, muted stock price reactions following earnings prints, and further compression in the forecasted growth rate embedded in consensus earnings expectations for 2024. Second, in our review of last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls the tone was mixed on the macro, negative on China, and had a positive tilt on the consumer.

Third, two of the charts in focus in our Europe/UK meetings last week included our chart showing how the earnings dominance of the top 7 names in the S&P 500 is fading (which may help spark leadership rotation down the road) and our chart showing how net bullishness on the AAII survey may be heading for a 2-standard deviation event (delaying the pullback we have been anticipating).