The AI "Bubble" and Private Equity Hype

Everyone's talking about an "AI bubble." Is it real? David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM look at what the actual earnings data says — and it tells a different story than the headlines.

This episode also covers SpaceX's stock drop, and why 95% of the company's shares are still locked up and can't be sold yet. Dave and Nate walk through what that means for anyone thinking about buying in now. They also get into private equity: why it's being pushed so hard to individual investors right now, and the real cost of locking up your money for seven years to get in.

The takeaway: don't let headlines or hype set your investment strategy. Understand the actual data, stay disciplined, and keep your options open.

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

00:00 - A Volatility Reality Check

0:21 - Welcome And Why SpaceX Matters

3:59 - AI Bubble Claims Put To Data

8:30 - Semiconductors Cool Off And IPOs Wait

14:05 - Concentration Risk In The S&P 500

18:45 - SpaceX Price Drop And The Float Problem

22:25 - Staying Invested Through Normal Drawdowns

24:03 - Lockups, Liquidity Events, And Timing

27:57 - Space Exposure Via ETFs Plus Mag 7 Check

29:50 - FOMO, Feelings, And Long-Term Odds

29:51- Why Private Markets Get Pushed

31:22 - The Seven-Year Wait And Opportunity Cost

36:03 - When Alternatives Can Actually Fit

41:30 - How To Send Questions And Subscribe

42:08 - Required Investing Disclosure

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About "Off the Wall": Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com