How Much is Too Much?

Given that current and forward EPS estimates were cratering in 2020 due to the pandemic and subse-quent shutdowns, there is little doubt that much of the S&P 500’s rapid ascent last year was due to an expanding multiple. The US 10-year touched a cyclical and all-time low of 0.50% back in August. The equity risk premium, which refers to the excess return that investing in stocks provides over the risk-free rate, made equities very attractive because sovereign bonds were so unattractive. In other words, it was not so much that equities were cheap, it was that the alternatives were very expensive. Indeed, the world looked quite grim during the depths of the pandemic.