Oil Is Falling While the War Continues. What Is the Market Pricing In?

September 17, 2026 — Oil prices are pulling back even as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Zach Abraham explains why the market’s surprisingly calm reaction may be sending an important signal about what investors expect next. Zach breaks down the latest moves in oil and interest rates, why crude may be looking through the headlines toward some kind of resolution, and why the downside could become just as violent as the upside if the geopolitical picture changes quickly. He also discusses the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike, why he remains skeptical that long-term yields have peaked, and where he sees the more attractive risk-reward if rates and the dollar eventually reverse.

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