Andy May: “The Sun vs CO2” | Tom Nelson Pod #389

Andy May discusses how Earth’s energy imbalance and ocean heat content relate to solar radiation versus greenhouse-gas downwelling IR. He argues IR photons are lower energy and absorbed in the ocean’s top micrometers–millimeter (thermal/electromagnetic skin), so it cannot directly heat the mixed layer; instead it may reduce upward heat loss by altering the skin-layer temperature gradient, while sunlight penetrates meters to greater than 100 m and warms the bulk ocean. He critiques NASA-style energy-flow diagrams for confusing one-way radiative fluxes (e.g., 340 W/m²) with net heat (e.g., 58 W/m²). He highlights large uncertainties in EEI and OHC due to sparse, inconsistent datasets, cool-skin effects, short Argo-era records, and oscillations like AMO/ENSO, making partitioning of causes uncertain.

00:00 Sun vs CO2 Setup

00:35 Why IR Differs

02:52 Ocean Skin Layers

05:48 Photon Energy Debate

07:55 Cool Skin Impacts

10:01 Energy Diagram Myths

13:33 EEI and OHC Limits

18:17 Ocean Data Disagreements

23:55 Surface EEI Variability

26:38 IR Cannot Heat Deep

29:51 Bottom Line Uncertainty

31:18 Q&A and Critiques

34:52 Modeling and Coverage

36:41 Regional Trend Map

41:21 Closing Takeaways

https://x.com/Andy_May_Writer

https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/

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