Election Analysis: Young Thais, Old Parties...New Tricks? [S8E32]

Tech Fail Alert! The last 5 minutes of our discussion was cut off by dastardly internet Gremlins, but we said most of what we wanted to say anyway.

In a follow-up to the recent Thai election, Greg and Ed do their best to make sense of the unexpected outcome. Greg defers to Ed's poli sci knowledge, and Ed struggles through it despite his expertise being American politics. Before the election, polls indicate it was a three-horse race between the progressive faction, the Thaksin clan, and the conservative faction led by the current Prime Minister. Although the progressive faction was expected to grab a plurality, none of the three were expected to have the majority necessary to form a government - so the main question was going to be: Which two factions would team up?

Alas, the conservative faction ended up with a decisive victory, upending many of the gains that the progressive faction made in the last election, especially in rural areas. The margin of victory was such that the issue of coalition-building was almost moot due to the plethora of small parties to build the majority.

So what led to the conservative victory? Ed notes that the current Prime Minister capitalized on his incumbency to ride a nationalist wave driven by the recent conflict with Cambodia. This was somewhat expected, but not to the extent that came to pass. Other factors, such as the lack of a charismatic leader among the progressive faction could also have been a factor. Greg chalks it up to people just being tired of the constant back-and-forth where nothing ever really changes, so they just chose to stay home and not vote for anyone - basically, they prefer stability to fighting for change.

Last, the guys discuss the myriad claims of mistakes in the vote count and hope the Election Commission orders some recounts in at least some districts.