Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

A.M. Edition for May 4. President Trump announces a new plan for opening the Strait of Hormuz - but traders seem unconvinced, sending oil prices higher. Plus, GameStop makes a massive play for e-commerce giant Ebay. And a Journal investigation reveals why most prediction market bets end in a loss. WSJ’s Neil Mehta details the winners and losers of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket - and why the odds are worse than a Vegas slot machine. Daniel Bach hosts. Sign up for the WSJ’s free What’s News newsletter.