Black Sea ceasefire decoded & can Europe defend Ukraine without America?

Day 1,127.

Today, as the White House’s Signal data breach controversy unfolds, we examine the details of the alleged Black Sea ceasefire deal, which has sparked differing interpretations from Ukraine and Russia. We also explore the possibility of a secret agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Francis Dearnley (Executive Editor for Audio). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon (Chemical Weapons Expert and Former Tank Commander). @HamishDBG on X.

Content Referenced:

Briefings & Statements (The White House):

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/ 

Here Are the Attack Plans That Trump’s Advisers Shared on Signal (The Atlantic):

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/signal-group-chat-attack-plans-hegseth-goldberg/682176/

Putin is beaten in the Black Sea. Of course he wants a ceasefire there (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/25/putin-defeated-black-sea-ceasefire-naval-victory-ukraine/ 

Europe’s War in Ukraine (Jack Watling in Foreign Affairs):

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/europes-war-ukraine 

EU ethical rules blocking £100bn defence spending boom (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/24/eu-ethical-rules-blocking-100bn-from-defence-industry/

How Europe can hurt Russia’s economy (The Economist):

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/03/24/how-europe-can-hurt-russias-economy

Lukoil Profits Drop Nearly 30% (The Moscow Times):

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/26/lukoil-profits-drop-nearly-30-in-2024-amid-asset-losses-higher-taxes-a88485 

Inside Russia’s Gazprom (The Financial Times):

https://www.ft.com/content/5da44f55-d28a-4965-b7a5-bf014d685036?shareType=nongift 

Oleg Gordievsky: the loneliest and bravest man I ever met (The Times):

https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/oleg-gordievsky-kgb-double-agent-8cxbpkctk

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