This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to
[email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series 00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance 02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut 03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals 06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty 08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models 11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals 13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets 16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility 19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation 22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets 28:07...
