TWIST VC Roundtable: Startup Valuations, Secondary Markets & the YC Revenue Illusion | E2137

Today’s show: Alex moderates a TWIST VC Roundtable with Jason, Paige Doherty (Behind Genius), and Altimeter’s Megan Reynolds about the state of early-stage venture capital. They break down the rise of secondary markets as a key liquidity path for VCs, analyze the resurgence in M&A activity from major players like Meta, Databricks, and OpenAI, and question whether inflated ARR figures from YC startups are distorting valuations. Jason shares his year-zero investment thesis and offers tactical advice on secondary structuring and identifying high-quality revenue. Whether you're raising, investing, or building, this episode delivers essential insights into the evolving early-stage landscape.

Timestamps:

(0:00) Episode Teaser(1:28) Meet our panelists!(2:37) Will secondaries replace traditional M&A?(10:10) LinkedIn Ads - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups(14:28) Has M&A actually bounced back?(20:06) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.(25:35) Secondary market advice, just for founders(30:10) Retool - Visit https://www.retool.com/twist and try it out today.(32:49) Why is it so hard for emerging managers to raise funds?

(38:28) Seed funds: the math is not mathing(52:07) Why early investors become “collateral damage”(56:31) The importance of revenue quality in early-stage startups(1:06:43) Quick Fire Question Round!

Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com

Check out the TWIST500: https://www.twist500.com

Subscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcp

Links from episode:

Altimeter: https://www.altimeter.com/homeBehind Genius: https://www.behindgeniusventures.com/

Follow Meghan:

X: https://x.com/MeghanKReynolds

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/meghankreynolds/

Follow Paige:X: https://x.com/paigefinnn

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paigedoherty/

Follow Alex:

X: https://x.com/alex

LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm

Follow Jason:

X: https://twitter.com/Jason

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis

Thank you to our partners:

(10:10) LinkedIn Ads - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups

(20:06) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.

(30:10) Retool - Visit https://www.retool.com/twist and try it out today.

Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland

Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis

Follow TWiST:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiS