Lula Turns the Tide on Trump’s Donroe Doctrine

On Sunday, October 25, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defeated far-right Senator Flavio Bolsonaro by a margin of three and a half points, and almost 4.5 million votes. It was roughly twice as many votes as Lula won by in the 2022 election, when he defeated Flavio’s father Jair Bolsonaro.

It was the first time in Brazilian history that a candidate lost the first round, and won in the second. And it was also one of the first defeats of a far-right Trump ally in several years.

As we’ve looked at in-depth throughout this season of the podcast, Trump’s Donroe Doctrine has overshadowed the region since he came back into power early last year. He’s invaded Venezuela, tightened the screws on Cuba, and twisted arms to get his friends elected in countries up and down the Americas.

But in Brazil, he couldn’t. And it’s not because Trump and his Silicon Valley buddies didn’t try.
It’s because Lula supporters organized en masse. Students, workers, teachers, retirees and everyone in between. And they hit the streets to flip the vote, despite the odds.

They rallied with weeks of around-the-clock campaigning, marches and protests. They pamphleted and fliered. They talked to their neighbors and their relatives. Online, Lula supporters responded with creative campaigns to confuse the algorithms that aggressively pushed content promoting Senator Flavio Bolsonaro to social media users.

As many in the crowds told me again and again in recent weeks, this election was a decision that would define the fate of Brazil’s democracy.

Because this wasn’t a vote between two candidates in a democratic system, where one wins and the other accepts their loss. It was a decision between democracy and dictatorship. Or democracy and something else. And democracy won.

Alongside the sweeping victories in the midterm elections last week in the United States, it may have shown the path forward toward rolling back Donald Trump’s agenda in the region.

We began this Season 2 of Under the Shadow in the weeks following the publication of Trump’s National Security Doctrine, in December 2025. We have now come full circle. Closing with the shifting tides that helped to lift Lula to reelection.

Guests:

• Alexander Aviña
• Sean T. Mitchel

Resources About Lula’s Election in Brazil:

• Lula Wins Stunning Upset Over Flávio Bolsonaro in Blow to Far Right & Trump — Democracy Now!
• Lula wins fourth term in tight run-off against Bolsonaro