What The New CPI Data Tells Us

Yesterday’s inflation report delivered a surprise. Headline prices fell sharply, but the important story was beneath the headline. This was not a gasoline story. Core inflation was unchanged for the month, and several categories that have kept inflation stubbornly high moved lower. For investors, that distinction matters because it changes the conversation around interest rates today.

The new report is the Consumer Price Index, not the Personal Consumption Expenditures index that the Federal Reserve prefers. The PCE report still showed elevated inflation. But the CPI components give us a preview of where price pressure may be heading. Core CPI came in flat, compared with expectations for an increase. Core goods declined. Medical services, transportation services, used vehicles, and automobile insurance showed softness. Those are signs of broader disinflation, not merely cheaper oil.

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