Some numbers Are Not Adjusted

On today’s show we are looking at one of the most convincing economic indicators in advance of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

We hear politicians talking about how the economy is strong and how unemployment is near record lows. Inflation is coming down, but core inflation remains elevated. Maybe there will be a mild recession or a soft landing in the fourth quarter of this year. For now, we have a hot economy. The consumer is driving the economy. Airlines are reporting record profits.

For the first five months of this year, the congressional budget office has been reporting falling revenue. The treasury took in 1.693T in individual income taxes up to June 2023 compared with the same period last year which was 2.135T.

That’s a short fall of 442B in individual income tax receipts compared with the same period last year.

This is a 21% reduction in income tax receipts compared with last year. How can the economy be growing with a 21% reduction in income tax receipts?

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Host: Victor Menasce