How Japan Is Like Silicon Valley Bank

Today we’re going to connect two stories that, on the surface, look very different. One is Japan, where government bond yields have been rising, and the commentary on financial social media is busy declaring Japan is “blowing up.”

The other is the spring of 2023 in the United States, when Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic, all failed within weeks of each other.

These events rhyme because the underlying physics is the same. Duration risk plus leverage plus flighty funding can turn a paper loss into a real loss in about a weekend.

Let’s start with the basic math. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. That’s not an opinion, that’s bond arithmetic.

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