Does This Feel Like 2008?

Today we're pulling back from the headlinesand putting today's multifamily stress in its proper historical context. The data coming in from every corner of the lending market is telling a very consistent story. The question is no longer whether there is stress in multifamily. The question is whether the current cycle is starting to rhyme with the last major credit cycle in 2008 to 2010.Let's start with the anchor number: 0.78%. That is Fannie Mae's multifamily serious delinquency rate as of March 31, 2026. This is not a market-wide apartment default rate. It is specific to Fannie Mae's multifamily guaranty book of business, and it measures loans that are 60 days or more past due. The peak in 2010 was 0.8%. We are basically there.

The CMBS default rate is nearly 7%. These should be alarming numbers.

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