Beware Of The Bond Market Swings

On today’s show I want to share some guidance that I gave you on the podcast only a few days ago. I’m not here to trumpet anything or take a victory lap or anything like that. I’ve experienced a phenomenon whereby I will make a prediction or an observation on the podcast, and then behold a few days or a few weeks later, we’re reading about it in the Wall Street Journal.

The purpose is to help you see what I’m seeing so that you can see it too.

The unpredictability of the White House announcements over the past week has caused massive swings in the futures market which caused the basis trades to go against the hedge funds. This has caused hedge funds to dump bonds in order to cover their bank debt. They don't want to sell. They have to sell. The real risk is systemic risk to the banking system. If we see the Fed step in to protect the banking system in the coming days, we will know that the situation was severe enough to threaten the solvency of the banking system.

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