Are Second Homes The New Shadow Inventory?

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There are 6.2 million second homes in the United States. Let that number sink in for a moment.

According to NAHB estimates, second homes now account for 4.3% of the nation's entire housing stock. That's not a rounding error. That's a meaningful slice of the market and it's a slice that sits on a very different set of financial foundations than primary residences.

Today, I want to explore a scenario that nobody is loudly talking about yet: what happens if even a fraction of those 6.2 million properties hit the market at the same time? Could we see a replay — in slow motion — of the inventory surge that helped collapse prices in 2008?

Let me walk you through the mechanics.

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