The Probability Desk

The Probability Desk is a Universal Asset Owners show that turns the world’s most important daily events into probability-weighted scenarios for long-horizon capital. Each episode looks at the news of the day — geopolitics, conflict, energy, AI, trade, markets, demographics, climate, infrastructure, and sovereign strategy — and asks what could happen next, what the base case is, where the tail risks sit, and what second-order effects may be underestimated.Using scenario analysis, catastrophe-modeling concepts, Bayesian updating, base-rate thinking, stress testing, expert priors, and open-source intelligence, The Probability Desk maps how today’s events could reshape countries, sectors, asset classes, supply chains, and capital flows over time. The focus is not prediction for prediction’s sake, but disciplined strategic foresight for universal owners and institutions investing across decades.