Your Rate Won't Move Tomorrow... Unless THIS Happens

From The Mortgage Update with Dan Frio Podcast Dan Frio

Mortgage rates are holding steady heading into tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting, but oil sitting at $80 a barrel could change everything fast. Today I break down the jobs report, cooling inflation data, and why home prices are up 1.6% year over year despite the crash predictions.

There's a 70% chance the Fed does nothing at tomorrow's meeting, but that's not the full story. Between a softening ADP jobs report, inflation numbers coming in cooler than expected, and oil prices tied directly to the ongoing conflict overseas, there's a lot moving underneath the surface that could shift your rate in either direction. Here's exactly what I'm watching and what I'm telling my own clients to do right now.

📊 What we're tracking today:

Federal Reserve meets tomorrow, federal funds rate currently at 3.75%
70% chance of no rate change at this meeting, with hikes possibly on the table by end of year
ADP jobs report shows job creation slowing to roughly 60,000 a month, below the 100,000 needed to stay neutral
Core CPI and PPI inflation both came in cooler than expected two weeks ago
Oil prices sitting at $80 a barrel, up from $60 before the war started, directly pressuring inflation and rates
Home prices up 1.6% year over year (Case-Shiller), beating the 1.2% forecast
Mortgage rates up 14 ticks recently and holding steady for now

Read the full rate breakdown on my blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/mortgage-rates-flat-at-680-ahead-of-critical-fed-vote

⏱️ Chapters (estimated, please verify against footage): 0:00 – Intro: What's Coming Tomorrow From the Fed 1:35 – Today's Jobs Report and Inflation Check 3:20 – Oil at $80 a Barrel and Why the Fed Is Watching 5:15 – Home Prices Up 1.6%? The Crash Crowd Reacts 7:10 – Fed Meeting Tomorrow and What I'm Telling My Clients

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DISCLAIMER

I am a federally registered mortgage loan originator with PBT Bancorp. NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender.

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, The Rate Update, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

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