Unemployment Holds at 4.2%... So Why Did We Lose 20,000 Jobs?

From The Mortgage Update with Dan Frio Podcast Dan Frio

Mortgage rates are reacting to a soft jobs report, oil prices holding under $80, and a Federal Reserve meeting just 37 days away. I break down CPI, PPI, unemployment at 4.2%, and what all of it means for your rate this week.

Here's what's driving the mortgage rate market today:

The June jobs report just showed 20,000 jobs lost while unemployment somehow held at 4.2%, and I explain why the market is reading that as a crack in the labor market. This week we get two inflation reports that matter a lot more than usual. Wednesday brings CPI, both core and headline, with core inflation expected to tick up to 0.2% after coming in flat last month. Thursday brings PPI, the producer side, expected to rise to 0.2% after a negative 0.3% reading last time. I also walk through why oil is the number to watch right now. As long as oil stays under $80 a barrel we're in a manageable range, but if it pushes toward $90 to $100 a barrel that is when inflation spikes and mortgage rates jump with it. On top of all of that, I cover the Iran conflict overhang, the Dow Jones move from 50,000 to 54,000 since the war started, and why the Fed is now sitting at a 54% chance of holding the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at their next meeting in 37 days instead of cutting or hiking.

Get the full breakdown and more market analysis on the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog

CHAPTERS (estimated, please verify against final edit) 0:00 Jobs report reaction and today's rate chart 1:35 What the Fed is watching: unemployment at 4.2% and GDP 2:35 This week's CPI and PPI reports explained 4:20 Why oil under $80 is the number that matters 5:35 Fed meeting in 37 days and today's rate forecast

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