Mortgage Rates Near 7.5%: What Happened the Last Time?

Mortgage rates today are jumping toward 7.5% as oil prices surge over 4% and the mortgage bond market drops 38 ticks. I break down the bond market, inflation data, and Federal Reserve rate hike odds so homebuyers, homeowners, and realtors know what to expect.

In this episode of The Rate Update:
🛢️ Oil jumps over 4% after Trump rejects the Iranian proposal on the strait, and why that hits mortgage rates
📉 Mortgage bonds (MBS) are down 38 ticks, and what that means for your rate today
📅 This week's economic reports: Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, and Core PCE inflation, with my forecasts
🏦 Why the Fed funds rate doesn't set your mortgage rate, and what the bond market is really doing
📊 Why the 30 year fixed sits at 7.43% while the 10 year Treasury is 5.17%, and how the risk premium spread is keeping rates high
⚠️ Fed rate hike odds: about a 68% chance at the next meeting
🏡 What I'm telling clients: if you're under contract, walk in the rate today; if you're buying down the road, qualify at 7.5% to 7.75%

Read today's full breakdown and the numbers behind it on my blog:
https://www.therateupdate.com/blog

CHAPTERS
0:00 Oil Jumps 4%, Mortgage Bonds Fall, Rates Near 7.5%
1:30 What the Fed Does and What Actually Moves Mortgage Rates
3:00 This Week's Data: Home Prices, Confidence, Jobs, Core PCE
7:00 Why Rates Aren't Getting Back to 5%: Bonds and Risk Premium
10:30 Fed Hike Odds and What Homebuyers Should Do Now

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Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.

Here we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.

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DISCLAIMER

Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender
524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701
NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan originator with PBT Bancorp. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781.

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

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