Mortgage Rates May Move the OPPOSITE Way After the Fed Hike

Mortgage rates, inflation, and the bond market are all reacting to one thing this week: oil above $100 a barrel and the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Here's what the Fed is actually watching, and why mortgage rates could still fall even if they hike.

🛢️ Oil crosses $100 a barrel, and why that's the real story behind this week's inflation numbers
📊 Breaking down the headline CPI, core CPI, and producer price index, and what each one tells the Fed
📈 The mortgage bond and 10 Year Treasury charts I check every morning, and what a red day actually means for your rate
🏦 CME FedWatch shows an 88% chance the Fed hikes this week, plus the rate hike path through next July
🏠 My advice right now if you're under contract, buying, or refinancing, including how much buffer to build into your rate lock

📝 Full breakdown with charts on my blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog

0:00 Oil Over $100 and This Week's Fed Meeting
1:40 Inflation Breakdown: CPI, Core CPI, and Producer Prices
3:50 Why Oil Is Driving Inflation (The Orange Crop Analogy)
6:10 Reading the Bond Market and the Mortgage Bond Chart
8:50 Fed Odds, the Rate Hike Path, and What You Should Do Now

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Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio.

This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy.

Here we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions.

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DISCLAIMER

Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender
524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701
NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan originator with PBT Bancorp. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781.

This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.

All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.

Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

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