Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’

Our guest today is Dr. Mohamed El-Erian. Dr. El-Erian is Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the parent of PIMCO, where he formerly served as chief executive and co-chief investment officer, and President-Elect of Queens’ College, Cambridge University. He first joined PIMCO in 1999 and was a senior member of PIMCO’s portfolio management and investment strategy group. He rejoined the company at the end of 2007 after serving for two years as president and CEO of Harvard Management Company.

Before coming to PIMCO, Dr. El-Erian was a managing director at Salomon Smith Barney/Citigroup in London and before that spent 15 years at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., where he served as Deputy Director. Dr. El-Erian has served on numerous boards and committees, including a stint as Chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council from Dec. 2012 to Jan. 2017.

A much sought-after author, columnist, and speaker, Dr. El-Erian has published two best-selling and critically acclaimed books, When Markets Collide and The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse. He also was named to _Foreign Policy _magazine's list of “Top 100 Global Thinkers” four years in a row, among other accolades.

Dr. El-Erian holds a master’s degree and doctorate in economics from Oxford University and received his undergraduate degree from Cambridge University.

Background
• Dr. Mohamed El-Erian bio
• Dr. El-Erian’s commentary
• Dr. El-Erian’s tv and radio interviews
• The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, by Mohamed El-Erian, January 2016.
• When Markets Collide, by Mohamed El-Erian, June 2008.
• “The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers," Foreign Policy, Nov. 26, 2012.
• Dr. El-Erian’s Twitter handle @elerianm

Dr. El-Erian’s Recent Comments on COVID-19

• “The Coming Coronavirus Recession: And the Uncharted Territory Beyond," Foreign Affairs, Mar. 17, 2020.

• “The Federal Reserve Takes its Crisis Management Game Up Several Notches,” Yahoo Finance, Mar. 17, 2020,

• “It Will Get Better But After We Feel Even More Unsettled,” Yahoo Finance, Mar. 13, 2020.

• “Six Things Investors Should Remember Amid Extreme Stock Market Volatility,” Yahoo Finance; Mar. 8, 2020.

• “El-Erian: We Shouldn’t Bail Out Every Industry Halted by Coronavirus Crisis,” CNBC, Mar. 19, 2020.

• “El-Erian: Fed Should Have Been More ‘Laser-Focused’ on Market Failures,” CNBC, Mar. 16, 2020.

• “El-Erian on Markets: ‘It’s Getting Less Scary Than It Has Been for a While," CNBC, Mar. 13, 2020.

• “El-Erian: U.S. Stock Market Could End Up Dropping 20%-30% Before Bottom Is Finally Reached," CNBC, Mar. 9, 2020.

Shownotes (Note: We will add the interview transcript soon.)

Introduction
• Introducing Dr. El-Erian and bio (0:21)

High Level Macro
• The market and economic backdrop have changed drastically in what seems like no time. You’ve been prescient in foreseeing some of the impacts. But what has surprised you thus far? (1:48)
• We’ve heard you say that financial “sudden stops” are more addressable than economic “sudden stops”. Can you explain the difference between financial/economic “sudden stops," why the latter is harder to deal with, and how