New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 273 to discuss the markets and the economy. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ 00:00 Introduction: Larry McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report 00:47 Getting long high beta names in April, now lightening positions 02:18 Add high beta into fear/panic, lighten into complacency 04:11 Warning about "Liz Truss moment" for America - bond panic scenario 06:38 Debt ceiling suspension creates $1.7 trillion bond issuance catch-up 08:04 Bessent's "bag of tricks" to fight bond vigilantes 09:33 Dollar counter-trend rally from front-end Treasury issuance 11:41 Mechanics of dollar rally: need dollars to buy Treasuries 13:53 Emerging market bonds outperforming long-term Treasuries 16:14 Question whether "bag of tricks" arrives on time to help bonds 17:05 Financial repression explanation: suppress rates below inflation 18:40 Bond vigilantes back despite Bessent's interventions 19:35 Commodities renaissance: copper names up 200-300% over 5 years 21:51 New portfolio construction: gold, copper, uranium, lithium miners 24:08 Risk: banks exposed to $5 trillion in commercial real estate debt 25:09 Jamie Dimon and Buffett selling banks at "alarming pace" 26:31 Optimistic on lithium trade and Chile election outcome 26:55 Expecting 100 basis points in rate cuts due to debt burden 28:12 Coal names oversold, offshore drilling opportunities 30:00 Closing remarks
