Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is "clearly late" in addressing a commercial real estate nightmare while consumer credit remains quiet, creating a "silent recession" ignored by markets. He warns the "Big Beautiful Bill" will drive inflation higher despite Trump's demands for rate cuts, with Treasury Secretary Bessent's shift to T-bill issuance representing a "last resort before default." Whalen predicts NYC mayoral candidate Mamdani will win and destroy real estate values with rent freezes, while inflation radicalizes politics nationwide. He advocates for gold as central banks abandon dollars, positioning in short-term treasuries and bank preferreds, and warns America needs an Argentina-style "Milei moment" crisis to force real change. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction: Chris Whalen 00:59 Fed is "clearly late" - commercial side is a nightmare 02:31 Fed late but no rate cuts coming soon due to fiscal deficits 04:28 Big beautiful bill will cause higher inflation and long rates 06:48 Silent recession in commercial real estate and private credit 09:18 NYC mayoral race: Mamdani 70% chance, will freeze rents 11:40 Wealthy exodus from NYC unlikely - condos vs. rentals 13:00 Inflation radicalizing Democratic Party politics 14:23 America needs Argentina "Milei moment" when crisis hits 16:13 Bessent switching to T-bills - last resort before default 19:17 Trump mismanaging relationship with Powell 20:45 Bank sector: deflation in lending, lack of credit demand 22:35 Private equity "train wreck" ignored by Fed stress tests 24:10 Dollar decline signals gold returning as reserve asset 25:30 Physical gold vs. ETFs discussion 27:12 Portfolio positioning: gold, bank preferreds, short-term treasuries 29:51 Housing volumes down 20-25%, lock-in effect persists 32:02 Southern overbuilding compressing million-dollar homes 35:20 Warning about market reaction to big beautiful bill
