Assignment: What future for Assad’s army?

The former rebels who now rule Syria dismantled the old regime’s security forces as soon as they came to power last December. Overnight, half a million soldiers, police and intelligence officers, and some civil defence workers lost their jobs and income. Many of those sacked were guilty of atrocities. But the majority probably were not. Tim Whewell reports on the reconciliation process which deprived servicemen of their jobs – but delayed justice. He talks to a variety of former junior members of the security forces – a civil defence worker, a policeman and an officer of the elite Republican Guard – to ask how and why they originally became servants of the regime – and find out how they are living now. War crimes investigator Kilman Abu Hawa says only 10-15% of former servicemen are guilty of crimes: the guilty should be prosecuted, and the innocent reinstated. Nanar Hawach of the International Crisis Group draws a parallel with Iraq, where the security forces were dismantled after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Many discontented former officers in Iraq eventually joined the jihadi group, ISIS. Do the mass dismissals in Syria risk provoking a similar insurgency?