Why Tax Refunds May Be Bigger in 2026

Americans may be heading into the largest tax refund season on record - even though it may be one of the latest start tax refund seasons in recent memory.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that recent tax law changes could result in tax refunds that are “$1,000 to $2,000” larger for many households when they file their 2025 returns in early 2026.

The White House has echoed that claim, pointing to estimates from Piper Sandler, suggesting the average refund could rise by roughly $1,000 compared with the 2025 filing season. That would put the typical tax refund at about $4,150.

If those projections hold, millions of taxpayers will see more money returned by the IRS - not because taxes suddenly fell during the year, but because they paid too much along the way.