Full Episode - Trump’s Closing Message Couldn’t Be Worse + Can An Independent Win Montana’s Senate Seat?

Chuck Todd zooms out to a global pattern: Trump-aligned right-wing leaders have now lost in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel, all on massive turnout. Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8-48.2 in a race widely read as a test of Trump’s influence in Latin America, after Trump met with Bolsonaro and imposed tariffs over the charges against his father. Serbia’s student movement ended Aleksandar Vučić’s 14 years in power on the highest turnout in three decades. Chuck argues Trump didn’t cause these results but wasn’t irrelevant to them either — voters are rejecting a model, not just incumbents. Back home, he notes Democrats could lose both Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate, that South Carolina is becoming remarkably competitive, and that Trump’s closing message — Venezuela as the 51st state, celebrating oil industry profits, feuding with Bill Maher over an Obama Cheesecake Factory joke — is making everything worse for his party. 

Then, Seth Bodnar — Green Beret, former GE executive, and former University of Montana president now running for Senate as an independent — joins the Chuck ToddCast a week out. He’s assembled a genuinely strange coalition: Pete Buttigieg endorsed him over the Democratic nominee, and both sides of Montana’s 1992 governor’s race, Republican Marc Racicot and Democrat Dorothy Bradley, are backing him. Bodnar’s military background drives his sharpest material — he argues Hegseth politicizing the military would have dire consequences, and that senior officers are now resigning rather than carry out unlawful orders, facing a brutal choice between staying to mitigate harm or leaving in protest. He says he won’t organize with either party, argues half of Senate votes are procedural and an independent can force real debate, and makes the case that one-party dominance in any state is unhealthy. Plus affordability, universal coverage, and whether Montana moves up to FBS.

Finally, Chuck unloads the mailbag with an extended edition of “Ask Chuck”.

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Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Trump allies lose in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel

08:00 A rejection of the right, not just anti-incumbency

12:45 What happens to Israel if Bibi is ousted

20:45 Democrats could lose Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate

24:15 South Carolina, Kansas, and the paths that are opening

28:45 Bannon’s theory about protecting moderates

33:15 Trump off-message: Venezuela, oil profits, and a missing Rubio

40:30 The Bill Maher feud and Trump’s Obama complex

48:15 DOJ strikes out against Comey and Hutchinson

50:45 $1.4 billion wagered on the midterms & the case for regulating prediction markets 

1:08:15 Seth Bodnar joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:09:45 Regrets about running as an independent, and endorsements from both sides

1:12:45 Hegseth, politicizing the military, and officers resigning over unlawful orders

1:17:00 Should Congress subpoena senior military leaders?

1:20:30 What can actually be done on affordability

1:23:00 Corporate concentration, antitrust, and the housing crunch

1:28:00 Would either party talk him into caucusing?

1:32:45 Rural America, the Bankhead question, and where the polls stand

1:40:15 Reagan, Putin, and the danger of unchecked one-party rule

1:43:00 Universal coverage and what Medicaid means in Montana

1:46:45 Education, AI literacy, and critical thinking

1:53:45 FBS, collective bargaining, and the future of college football

2:05:30 Don’t miss our election night livestream with Chris Cillizza and DDHQ

2:06:00 Ask Chuck

2:06:15 If the GOP suffers significant losses, could they use impeachment as a reset?

2:08:15 Are Democrats going to walk back support on trans issues to appear moderate?

2:12:45 Are gaffes and comms issues more a reflection of candidates or yes-man staffers?

2:15:00 If Republicans get wiped out in midterms, what does that do to Vance’s prospects

2:19:15 If Ramaswamy wins, how should we think about our fellow citizens?

2:21:45 What’s behind the shocking bigotry and Islamophobia we’re seeing from GOP?

2:30:45 How did Tim Russert influence your career?

2:36:45 How will Trump’s foreign policy change after the midterms?

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