Episode February 25, 2026 2 hr 18 min

Full Episode - Trump Didn’t Win Any Converts During The State Of The Union + A Financial Planner's Brutally Honest Take on Trump's Economy

In this episode recorded immediately after Trump's record-breaking 108-minute State of the Union address, Chuck Todd argues that while Trump's base will love the "own the libs" moments — from trolling Democrats in the chamber to the raucous "USA" chants from Republicans — the speech was fundamentally a missed opportunity that did nothing to help the GOP heading into the midterms. He contends that Trump chose to be a party leader rather than a president, turning the address into something resembling an award show by packing it with medal presentations, the Olympic men's hockey team, honorees who deserved more dedicated recognition rather than being used as applause props in an already bloated speech. He argues that Trump's tone on the economy couldn't have been worse for Republicans: with his approval at 60% disapproval and the Supreme Court having just struck down his tariffs days earlier, Trump barely addressed voters' core concerns about costs and affordability, instead declaring a "turnaround for the ages" that doesn't match most Americans' lived experience. He notes Trump’s highlighting of Iran's ballistic missiles sounded like a pretext for war that won't play well with parts of his own base. He praises Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger's Democratic response as simple and effective — particularly her pointed questions about whether the president is actually working to make life more affordable — and argues she clearly won over independents. He closes with a bigger-picture observation: that there's a 60% majority coalition available on populist economic issues like protecting the safety net from cuts to fund tax breaks for the wealthy, but that Democrats still have a damaged brand despite Trump's terrible numbers, and that voters who thought they were getting first-term Trump are reckoning with something very different.

Then, Paul Auslander, President of SeaBridge Private Wealth, a division of SeaBridge Investment Advisors LLC joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the intersection of money, markets, and the current political moment. Auslander walks through how the political climate now factors directly into financial planning projections, noting that European indices doubled the S&P's performance last year as capital flows shift overseas, and that a growing number of wealthy clients are hedging by moving money out of the United States. He offers candid takes on the issues keeping investors up at night: the inevitability of Social Security cuts (though he argues simply pushing retirement age from 67 to 69 would stabilize the fund), the likely future of Social Security privatization, crypto's evolution from a technological revolution into a special interest that bought its own policy outcomes, and whether there's money to be made off bad Trump policies that are likely to be reversed. Auslander also explains why the bond market is a better barometer of economic health than the stock market, why private equity is sitting on mountains of sidelined capital, and why he remains cautiously bullish on 2026 — largely because AI is only in the "second inning" and massive disruption is still ahead.

The conversation also ventures into territory financial planners don't usually discuss publicly. Auslander addresses whether the wealthy are worried the "pitchforks are coming for them," pointing to economic anxiety driving a spike in gun sales and a pop culture landscape that increasingly portrays corporations and the ultra-rich as villains. He breaks down the rise of family offices — private wealth management firms for the ultra-wealthy that take a long-term investment view — and explains why companies increasingly choose to stay private thanks to nearly unlimited private capital, rather than face the scrutiny of public markets. They also dig into the generational divide between investing and gambling, the casino-like nature of prediction markets, and the burden that post-Lehman Brothers insurance and regulatory requirements have placed on small businesses and regional banks that had nothing to do with the 2008 financial crisis. Auslander closes with a pointed message: that Fed independence and the rule of law are paramount to economic stability, and that centrism — not ideological extremism — remains the best way to run the country.

Finally, Chuck presents his updated ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip in the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:15 Trump’s base will love “own the libs” moments from SOTU

04:30 Most of Trump’s base was celebrating himself & animating his base

05:15 Trump’s tone on the economy couldn’t have been worse for GOP

06:30 Trump hid behind the glory of others, turned speech into award show

07:45 Awards are an incredible honor, deserved more time & recognition

09:30 Hopefully the recipients get dedicated events to honor them

10:00 Overloading the speech with awards felt a bit gimmicky

11:00 Trump mostly bit his tongue when addressing SCOTUS

11:30 Trump chose to be a party leader rather than president, trolled Dems