Should We Be Talking About 1.8°C?

The conversation focused on the implications of the UNEP report Limiting Overshoot, which warns that global warming could reach 1.8°C even under the best-case pathway, with current policies potentially leading to 2.6°C.

The discussion explored whether sustainability professionals should replace the 1.5°C message with 1.8°C, or stay focused on the existing target. The answer depends on the audience. People who already understand the science may be ready to discuss overshoot in more depth. For others, introducing another number could create confusion, weaken existing targets, or encourage a “what’s the point?” response.

Key takeaways

• The UNEP report says overshoot is unavoidable, but warming can still be brought back down through a “peak and decline” strategy.
• Current policies could lead to 2.6°C of warming 04:18.
• Every fraction of a degree above 1.5°C increases the risks 04:40.
• The required actions include immediate emissions cuts, methane reductions, a rapid transition to net zero, carbon dioxide removal, and adaptation 05:15.
• Don’t add complexity before people understand the basics of climate change, urgency, and agency 07:21.
• If an organisation already has a 1.5°C target, introducing 1.8°C without context could muddy the waters 10:00.
• Sustainability messaging should reflect the audience’s level of awareness and readiness 10:52.
• If the basics aren’t in place, focus on carbon literacy training, lunch and learns, e-learning supported by real engagement, or showing the National Emergency Briefing 14:08.
• If the basics are in place, identify what’s preventing faster emissions reductions, stronger advocacy, supply-chain transformation, or industry leadership 15:46.
• Overwhelm can be reduced by finding the “nugget of truth,” breaking the issue down, and acting on what’s achievable 12:19.
• Supporting sustainability teams matters, even when sustainability isn’t part of the job title 13:43.

Ask honestly:

• Do the climate basics exist across the organisation?
• Is the current target driving real progress?
• What’s stopping faster and bigger carbon reductions?
• Is there a rock in the way that needs to be identified and removed?

The episode’s central message is clear: 1.8°C is a warning, not a reason to stop. There’s still a great deal to do 18:47.

Yes, we’re heading towards 1.8 degrees of warming, but there’s still a damn lot we can do in the meantime. Don’t stay in overwhelm. Get the basics in place, support each other, and take action.

Limiting Overshoot UNEP Report

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