We sincerely hope the House of Representatives can pull itself together and get the government back open this week. Not because we love federal bureaucracy—but because this shutdown is embarrassing, and it continues to chip away at the rapidly declining confidence that foreign governments and central banks have in the United States. This matters. Foreign governments and central banks collectively own $10+ trillion of US government bonds and other agency securities. And given how rapidly the national debt is rising, the Treasury Department needs every lender they can get. Up until recently, foreigners have always happily stocked up on US government bonds— which were traditionally viewed as THE world’s “risk free” asset. But over the past few years, they’ve seen endless financial chaos and political dysfunction. They watched Joe Biden shake hands with thin air. They watched the humiliating US withdrawal of Afghanistan. They watched millions of migrants stream across the US border with impunity, then be showered with taxpayer benefits. They watched TWO assassination attempts on a Presidential candidate. Then, even after last year’s election, they watched the richest guy in the world willingly roll up his sleeves to help eliminate federal waste and cut the deficit— only to get chased out of town by politicians who are addicted to fraudulent spending. They’ve watched extreme political dysfunction, with two sides who can’t agree on anything... including the most basic task of keeping the government open. They’ve watched deficits grow and the national debt spiral to $38 trillion. They watched the debt grow by HALF A TRILLION dollars just over the past SIX WEEKS when the government was supposedly closed. In short, if you were a foreign government or central bank, there’s little chance you would look at Congress and think, “these are serious, responsible people.” Quite the opposite. In fact you would probably think that it’s time to start cutting your Treasury holdings and back away from the US dollar. After all, the United States Congress doesn’t exactly look “risk free” any longer. Foreigners understand that a time is coming—sooner rather than later—when the US dollar will no longer be the dominant global reserve currency. Many central banks still hold nearly 100% of their reserves in US dollars. They know they need to diversify. And we’ve written about this many times before— the #1 asset that they’re purchasing right now is gold. It’s not because these foreign central bankers and finance ministers are irrational gold bugs. Instead, they understand that gold is nearly the only asset that (1) is universally accepted, (2) carries zero counterparty risk, and (3) has a large enough market to absorb hundreds of billions of dollars in capital flows. That’s why, from Poland to Ghana to Kazakhstan, central banks have been buying gold in record quantities. It’s not just China. China is the most desperate. They hold hundreds of billions in US dollar assets as part of their strategic financial reserves, and the Communist Party is extremely concerned—because they see a real possibility that they could be at war with their own borrower in the future. Only three central banks were selling gold last quarter—and their reasons are easy to understand. Russia was one—not because they love the dollar. But because they need to fund a war. Frozen out of the global financial system, gold has become almost a medium of exchange for the Russian government. Singapore was another. Most central banks only buy strategically; they don’t try to turn a profit. Not Singapore. Their financial institutions are filled with sharp traders who would sell high into record trading volume, with the intent to buy gold back at a lower price. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Singaporean government picked up more gold during the recent price dip earlier this month. The third was Uzbekistan,
