What We’re Thinking About As Tariffs Move To A New Phase

The big things you need to know:

1. First, the stock market is still experiencing a growth scare, in our view, where it is attempting to stabilize. We see more downside if recession is priced in.
2. Second, we review how the process of resetting EPS expectations has begun, and run though key themes from the early reporters and companies that have presented at conferences since the Rose Garden. Our overarching takeaway from our reading is that recession is not yet a foregone conclusion but also that US equities are not out of the woods.
3. Third, we run through our latest thoughts on the Growth trade, which has been outperforming again, and note that it is not a clear-cut call.