Walking Through The Math Behind Our Updated S&P 500 Forecasts

The big things you need to know:

• We’ve lowered our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,200 from 6,600,
• We’ve lowered our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $264 from $271.
• Among other adjustments, our new price target and EPS forecast embed the updated views of RBC’s Economics and Rates strategy team which were released last week.
• We have updated our year-end 2025 bear case for the S&P 500, which we’ve lowered from 5,775 to 5,550.
• Fourth, some of the vibes we've been tracking are starting to look too extreme to us (in terms of their negativity), but others have more room to go lower.