The Last Time We Were Here

This week in the podcast, we run through a few new thoughts on Russia /Ukraine from a US equity market perspective. Three big things you need to know: First, the big, obvious risks to our call on the S&P 500 are the possibility that the war will turn into a prolonged conflict involving NATO or the possibility that the US will slip into recession. We took a look at the historical playbook for stocks during WW2 and past recessions as a starting point for how to think about possible downside levels in the index should either of these risks materialize. Second, we are starting to see some shifts in momentum in political polling data back in Biden and the Democrats’ favor, which are worth keeping a close eye on given the mid term elections coming up in November. Third, public company commentary on the Russia/Ukraine crisis has surged and while most companies have said direct exposure is minimal, the broader conversation reflects a significant degree of uncertainty surrounding the impact of the event – reinforcing to us that the stock market either needs more time to digest what’s happening or an outright de-escalation of the conflict in order to stabilize.