Stuck In Neutral For Now

The big things you need to know: First, Small Caps are retesting their relative low vs. Large Caps once again, as Fed rate cut optimism has faded once again. We remain neutral Small vs. Large for now. Second, investor sentiment has almost returned to the highs in place to start the year (as well as the summer of 2023) on the AAII survey, reinforcing our neutral stance on the broader US equity market for now. Third, our S&P 500 valuation model continues to suggest that the broader US equity market is fairly valued, with some modest downside risk if current inflation, interest rate, and Fed assumptions end up being too rosy. For a material move higher in the market by year-end to be justified on the math, we think investors will need to start focusing on the outlook for 2025, where visibility still seems a bit limited.