Outlook Update, 3Q22 Earnings Preview

In this edition of the podcast, updated thoughts on our outlook for the US equity market as well as what’s coming up in 3Q22 reporting season. Four big things you need to know: First, we are trimming our S&P 500 EPS forecasts, which were already well below consensus, taking 2022 to $216 (down from $218) and 2023 to $208 (down from $212). Second, we are cutting our year-end 2022 S&P 500 forecast to 3,800 (down from 4,200) and issuing a new, preliminary target of 4,100 for 2023. We expect conditions to remain choppy over the next few quarters but anticipate recovery in 2023 as a whole. Third, 3Q22 reporting season has gotten off to a rough start in terms of stats and tone. The good news is that stocks tend to bottom ahead of the end of the downward earnings revision cycle and concerns about inflation and supply chains as well as expectations regarding pricing may have peaked. Fourth, Small Caps were the star of the show in 2Q22 reporting season, which helped stabilize performance vs. Large Cap. If this happens again, it could help trigger a new phase of Small Cap leadership.