Drawdowns, Bear Case Stress Test, Vibes, Small Caps

The big things you need to know: First, we review our basic framework for thinking about drawdowns in US equities, a topic that’s been coming up in client meetings over the past few weeks, as investor uncertainty regarding the economy has increased. Second, we have refreshed the math behind our YE 2025 bear case of 5,775, specifically our valuation/EPS stress test. Third, we run through our latest updates on the vibes breakdown in the US, where investor sentiment has plunged to crisis lows on one key metric. Fourth, some of our work suggests opportunity is opening up in Small Caps, though we think it’s too early to go overweight.