Conversations From The Road

This week in the podcast, highlights from our conversations with institutional equity investors last week, plus updates on the valuation and sentiment indicators we’re watching. Five big things you need to know: First, we’ve outlined two possible recession paths for S&P 500 EPS which suggest a valuation case for the S&P 500 can be made today on next year P/E if the recession is short-lived or at 3,200 on current year EPS. Second, as investors seek out clues on what’s been de-risked, we’ve been highlighting why the risk/reward for Small Caps has improved and note that Russell 2000 valuations returned to levels that often mark the low last week. Third, on sectors, we’ve also been highlighting how defensive sectors have been close to peak valuation vs. Secular Growth and Cyclicals, how Energy’s strong move up in early 2022 is out of sync with the typical recession drawdown, and how declines in Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services are already baking in recession to a significant degree. Fourth, the midterm elections are starting to emerge as a potential positive catalyst for US equities later this year in the eyes of some investors. Fifth, institutional investor sentiment appeared to get closer to a bottom last week.