Bottoming, Stabilization, Recovery, and Risk

This week in the podcast, we run through our latest thoughts on earnings, sentiment, trends in high frequency indicators, and Russia. Five big things you need to know: First, with 4Q21 reporting season starting to wind down, the earnings outlook remains stable. Second, in terms of the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions, Value and Cyclicals continue to outshine Defensives and Secular Growth. Third, retail investor sentiment has started to stabilize on the AAII survey and positioning in Nasdaq and Russell 2000 futures also suggests both Growth and Small Caps are oversold. Fourth, high frequency indicators are still recovering for the most part, casting doubt on recession fears. And fifth, while we continue believe the Fed is mostly priced in to the S&P 500, a Russian invasion of Ukraine may not be and currently presents one of the key risks to the stock market.