Show full transcript 1:00 Two of us had a great conversation 1:01 about the state of the midterms, a few weeks out. 1:03 We reacted to the highlights and lowlights 1:05 of this week's big Senate debates 1:07 and talked about what Democrats need to do 1:09 to close strong in November 1:11 and then win back the White House in 2028. 1:14 Before we get to our conversation, 1:16 the midterms are less than 30 days away 1:18 and CrookedCon is too. 1:20 It is November 5th through the 7th in Washington, DC 1:24 and we really wanna see you there. 1:26 We just announced 24 different conversations 1:28 and debates across four stages. 1:31 Everything from the Democratic brand 1:33 to the future of AI 1:34 to building a winning campaign for 28. 1:37 We've also got a live taping of Still Counting 1:40 with Nate Silver, Clarem Elone and Galen Druke 1:42 and that's an addition to Podsave America. 1:44 call, love it or leave it and strict scrutiny live shows so head on over to 1:48 cricketcon.com to get your tickets now and stay tuned for we got a whole bunch 1:53 more exciting names that we're gonna add to the lineup in the weeks to come. Up 1:58 next, David Oxerot. Axe, welcome back to the show. Always good to be with you 2:06 brother. I'm always happy when I'm with my old buddies from the writer's 2:12 room at the White House. I know we haven't talked in a while I guess 2:15 this is, we have to schedule interviews in order to catch up on on our respective podcasts. 2:21 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, I'm glad to be here. So we haven't got a chance to talk midterms in a 2:27 while. I want to get into some of the individual Senate races with you, and play some clips 2:33 from all the Senate debates this week. Yeah, those are fun. Yeah, a lot of debates this 2:37 week. But just to start, at this point, it seems like everyone's in agreement that the 2:42 the political environment is bad for Trump and the Republicans, and the only real question 2:48 is how bad. 2:50 Personally I feel like between the economy and the war and Trump's approval, if Democrats 2:56 can't win at least some of these red states with a midterm electorate, it ain't happening 3:02 for a long, long time. 3:04 But what do you think? 3:05 And with some good candidates, you know, first of all, Favs, I don't know if you're 3:11 having flashbacks, but I sure am, from 2010. And I watched the Republicans and, you know, 3:19 they're doing what we did, which is to try and rationalize that what is obviously happening 3:23 isn't going to happen. You know, I think that the climate is bad for Republicans in 3:33 getting worse. The president is not helping. I mean, I'm not saying that Donald Trump 3:38 is trying to lose the election for Republicans. 3:41 But if he were trying, 3:44 he would not do anything differently than he's doing. 3:47 I mean, it's really quite remarkable 3:50 how much he has undermined them. 3:52 And boy, I'll tell you what, 3:53 there's gonna be a whole lot of rage after the fact 3:58 if this goes down as it could. 4:00 One of my questions about these red states 4:02 that I've been thinking about is 4:03 we're measuring these states at, 4:07 But we say, I was a 13-point Republican state because that's what Donald Trump got last time. 4:15 More than a small portion of that 13% were people who didn't like Donald Trump, but were 4:21 really upset about the economy, didn't think that Biden had got it and was handling it. 4:28 Kamala was the number two in that operation, and Trump was the economy guy, that's how 4:35 they remembered him. 4:36 and they said, let's all right, we'll go take a shot on this. I don't think that I 4:41 was 13 points. You know, I don't think Ohio was 13 points necessarily. But there's 4:49 certainly red states. So that's point number one. Point number two, the 4:57 environment is so I mean, Trump is more unpopular I think than any president 5:04 has been going into a midterm election since like Harry Truman, who also didn't do very well, 5:10 by the way. And I think the house is gone. And it's just a question of margin. But so much of 5:16 this is about Trump because midterms are always about the guy in the president. It's always been 5:22 a guy so far, the guy in the White House. And if people are unhappy with the direction of the 5:26 country and particularly the economy, it's a really rough go for that party. And their play 5:33 now is to try and just spend, spend, spend. I did a thing with Chris Lasafida and Tony 5:40 Fabrizio at Arizona State University at the beginning of the year and I asked them about 5:43 the midterms and they said, we studied the midterms, we understand where things have 5:48 gone wrong. We were outspent by Democrats the last couple of elections. We're going 5:53 to make sure we vastly outspend them this time. We're going to make at that time 5:58 it was Mamdani, he's become a little too, you know, when Trump is embracing him, it makes 6:03 it a harder target, but we're going to make these lefties the face of the Democratic Party 6:07 and we're going to make it about them and we're going to make it about, you know, immigration 6:11 and, and, and taxes and crime and, uh, and, um, and, but the third thing they said 6:18 was, and we had this big, beautiful bill and we front loaded all these tax cuts 6:23 and people, you know, our bet is that people can be feeling better about the economy come the fall. 6:31 That did not work out because they did not know at that moment that Trump was going to declare war 6:37 on Iran and Canada for crying out loud. And, you know, those, the decision to go to war in 6:45 Iran and the decision to the tariffs generally from Liberation Day on have been so punishing 6:54 to the midsection of this country. 6:57 Those red agricultural states have been absolutely pummel when you look at the states that are 7:03 most punished by these two things, the war and and the tariffs, you know, I was at 7:11 the top of that list. Kansas is at the top of that list. Nebraska's at the top of that 7:17 list. And the war has another impact. So people say, our costs are way up. Diesel is killing 7:27 us. And there's one guy responsible for that. And it's the guy who said, we're not going 7:34 to get into any endless wars in the Middle East. 7:38 Yeah, and so they feel there's a sense of betrayal there. Yeah, it's I can't remember a time where 7:46 people have felt this bad about the economy and 7:49 Been able to so directly connect it to the actions of the president like usually the president suffers from 7:55 Bad feelings about the economy, but it's not often the president's out there bragging about the things 8:01 That people are most angry at this is another important point 8:06 And you remember this from when we were at the White House. 8:09 We, at the beginning of our administration, we came into office right at the beginning 8:14 of the Great Recession. 8:15 We walked into the worst economic situation since the Great Depression. 8:20 And we thought we were making progress. 8:24 But people were not feeling that progress. 8:28 And when we tried to claim progress too overtly and did not really project empathy 8:36 and advocacy for people who are struggling in that economy, we were punished for it. 8:42 And we corrected that. 8:43 You know, I'm sure you and I had that discussion many, many times. 8:47 You had that discussion with the other speech writers. 8:50 We always pulled that back because we knew that it was insulting to people to try and 8:57 jawbone them into feeling that the economy was better when their lives were not. 9:02 Joe Biden made that same mistake and paid a big price for it, you know, toured the country in 9:09 December of 2023, talking about the wonders of Bidenomics, the worst branding mistake since New 9:16 Coke. And so what's really unbelievable is that Trump, having benefited from Biden's 9:23 mistake, is now repeating it. And I think it has to do with the personality type. I think 9:28 Biden, they're very different people and Biden is a much better person. But there is a little 9:36 bit of narcissism in both of them that they want credit for what they have done. And remember, 9:42 even back in the day, Joe Biden used to say, if we just go out and tell people 9:47 what we've accomplished. He's going to tell a better story. 9:49 Yeah, exactly. So it turns out that the cash register is a better story teller than us. 9:56 The gas pump is a better storyteller than us. 10:01 And the story they're telling right now, and particularly in those Republican regions 10:06 that we've spoken about, is a very negative story. 10:10 So I think that the thing that's spooking everyone is this whole idea of the hidden 10:18 Republican vote. 10:19 You know that posters don't, that the non-responding Republicans who are going to come out and vote. 10:28 Now that's really been an effect in elections when Trump was on the ballot, first of all. 10:35 But secondly, posters are not stupid. 10:37 They read this crap, too. 10:40 So I think they're all adjusting their models, and I think they may be adjusting 10:44 their models to favorably for Republicans to offset the possibility of this. So it could be, 10:55 these are close races, they could tip the other way. But generally, when you have a wave, it's 11:02 not selective. We ran in 2010, we had a big wave against us, but we also had a woman running for 11:10 senator in Delaware who thought she was a witch and had to do an ad denying that she 11:18 was a witch. That's a bad path. You had a very flawed candidate in Indiana, so we were 11:28 able to win seats even in the midst of the wave, but there are so many states right now 11:34 that are in play that you would not have guessed would be in play six months ago. 11:39 Yeah, let's go through some of the big Senate races and let's start with Michigan where our 11:44 friend Abdul debated Mike Rogers for the first time this week, maybe one of the most heated 11:48 debates we've seen so far. 11:50 Just to give everyone an idea of how personal it got, here's a clip of the two candidates 11:55 fighting over their mothers, yachts, and who's better for Michigan. 11:59 Let's open up this can of worms. 12:01 I'll give you... 12:02 I'll tell you what, my mother did. 12:03 She was a small... 12:05 Do you go after my mom? 12:07 I'm not going after your mom. 12:08 That's what your mom was working at. I was going off to that organization that was indicted for funneling money to al Qaeda 12:14 He doesn't like seven million dollars in Florida my guy. Yeah, I'll talk. Yeah, you know what? Did you sell your yachts? 12:19 I never owned a yacht in Florida brother. Oh, really? 12:21 You had two of them. He wanted to make this about him or me, but the question is about you 12:27 Can you afford your gas? Can you afford your groceries under this guy who's gonna rubber stamp everything? 12:31 Donald Trump tells him to rubber stamp you're gonna continue to pay way more out the nose because he works for corporations and Donald Trump 12:38 So that was a flavor of the debate. Rogers tried to define Abdul as extreme. Abdul tried to 12:43 define Rogers as a corrupt Trump toady and also then turn it back to voters. Who do you think 12:49 succeeded? Well, first of all, I think the big winner of that debate may be the libertarian 12:54 candidate who wasn't in the debate. But because it was really kind of, I mean, it was a food 13:01 fight in many ways. But that closing, the closing comments from Abdul, I think, are really 13:09 pertinent. I mean, the bet that the Republicans are making is that they can 13:13 turn him into a scary kind of closeted terrorist. And that enough voters will be 13:23 off put by that, that they will ignore their very real grievances about the 13:29 direction of the economy and the direction of the country. Trump is, you know, more than 13:33 20 points underwater in that state. And I think that's a really hard thing for Rogers 13:39 to overcome. Rogers is also a sort of prototype of the kind of Washington Republican at a 13:47 time when I think people are throwing off the establishment and looking for people 13:52 who are agents of change. 13:55 So, but, you know, I don't underestimate, 14:01 you know, I've heard about focus groups in Michigan 14:03 where people say that I don't like the way Abdul looks. 14:08 I don't like the way, you know, 14:09 and they're going to try, 14:12 what that debate said to me last night was that 14:15 this is gonna be a very brutal three weeks 14:17 in which they are going to try 14:19 and scare the hell out of people. 14:22 about Abdul. And I liked our old boss's reaction when people asked why he was going to Michigan 14:31 to campaign for Abdul. And, you know, how could he, he said, well, you know, he wants healthcare 14:38 for everyone and he wants a higher minimum wage and put money in people's pockets. So it sounds 14:42 pretty good to me. I don't know. I was going to ask you about that because obviously Obama 14:47 dealt with plenty of ugly insinuations about his identity, 14:50 loyalties when he ran, what would your advice be to a duel in these final weeks 14:56 about responding without letting Rogers dictate the entire conversation? 15:02 I think his closing comments there were where he should go all the time, all the 15:08 time. This is, you know, this guy wants to scare you about me, but the scariest 15:14 thing that everyone in this state is facing are their bills every month, the price of gas, 15:22 of groceries, the inability to get health care, the price of housing and mortgage interest rates, 15:30 and he has rubber stamped all those policies. I grew up here. I love this state, and I love 15:37 the people of this state, and I want to be their advocate. He's going to be an advocate 15:41 for Donald Trump and the special interests in Washington. That's where I would go. I mean, 15:45 I don't, you know, Abdul, who I know and I like, he was a fellow at the Institute of Politics at 15:51 the University of Chicago that I founded. He's incredibly bright. I think he's well motivated. 15:58 He also is the former captain, you know, quarterback of the football team. And when it 16:03 gets into these kind of like, you know, who's dick is bigger contests, he just can't help 16:08 but jump in. He's gotten better, I think. He has. But he's like the little girl with 16:18 a curl in the middle of her forehead. When he's good, he's great. And when he's bad, 16:23 and when he's bad is when he kind of submits to that. And there was a little of that in 16:30 that debate last night. But whenever he's talking about people's lives, he's very 16:35 It's very compelling and that's where he should live. 16:46 Pod Save America is brought to you by Built. 16:48 Here's a question. 16:49 Are you getting rewarded for paying your rent or mortgage right now? 16:52 If the answer is no, you need to check out Built. 16:55 Becoming a Built member means earning points on every housing payment no matter where 16:58 you live. 16:59 Built points can be redeemed for flights, hotels, lift rides, Amazon.com purchases, 17:04 future housing payments, and much more. 17:06 They have tons of ways you can redeem your Built points. 17:08 You can go to fitness classes like SoulCycle or Berries or Y7. 17:12 You can do Amazon.com, you can get gift cards for like 120 different brands. 17:17 There are just tons and tons of different ways to use your bill points and get some out of the deal. 17:22 And Built's new AI neighborhood concierge doesn't just answer questions, it executes tasks. 17:27 From paying your rent and handling a lift to booking dinner reservations across 50,000 or more partners, 17:32 it handles your to-do list while automatically applying your member benefits. 17:35 What you do is this. 17:36 First, download the built app. 17:38 Then, link any credit card or debit card with the app so it purchases at your local spots 17:43 to become even more rewarding. 17:45 And third, ask the neighborhood concierge in the app pretty much anything, and it'll 17:48 alert you about exclusive member benefits near your home. 17:51 Download the built app and join the membership for where you live at joinbuilt.com slash 17:56 crooked. 17:56 That's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T dot com slash crooked. 18:00 Use our link so they know we sent you. 18:02 Pod Save America is brought to you by select quote, life insurance. 18:06 We all know we need it. 18:06 Will we keep putting it off, these we think it's complicated or expensive, or that will 18:10 live forever? 18:11 Stop telling yourself you'll handle it later and take care of it today with select quote. 18:15 In 15 minutes, you can have coverage that fits your life and your budget. 18:18 Here's what makes select quote different. 18:20 Their license insurance agents work for you, not for one insurance company. 18:24 They compare options across multiple carriers to find you the right coverage at the 18:27 lowest price. 18:29 They've been doing this for nearly 40 years and have helped over 2 million people 18:31 find coverage. 18:32 Even if you have health issues, they can help. 18:34 high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease, their agents know which carriers will give 18:39 you the best rate for your specific situation. If you're healthy, they can get you same-day 18:43 coverage with no medical exam. Other brokers push policies that pay them the most. Select 18:48 quotes agents actually shop for you. Select quote. They shop, you save. Get the right 18:54 life insurance for you for less at selectquote.com slash crooked. Go to selectquote.com 19:00 slash crooked today to get started. 19:02 Speaking of Obama, so he's going to Michigan, going to Detroit with Abdul and Jocelyn Benson 19:11 who's running for governor in a few weeks, what do you think is the most useful thing 19:15 Obama can do and say in Michigan with Abdul? 19:20 I think that he has to say a version of what we just said. 19:25 He has to say that, you know, people across Michigan and people across the country have 19:30 real-life concerns. They're struggling, and the systems let them, it's let them down. 19:37 And we need agents of change who want to make government more responsive to the needs of 19:43 people. That's who this guy is. Don't be distracted. You know, whenever you see these Halloween 19:50 type commercials on the air, that's the sign of a campaign that is trying to change 19:56 the subject. There should be one subject in this campaign, which is how we rest our policy 20:04 away and government away from special interests. And frankly, a president whose policies have 20:12 taken us, you know, are not in the interest of everyday people. Now, he'll say more 20:18 elegantly and, but that's the essence of it. I think reassurance is important. And 20:23 And he may wanna say, listen, I recognize some of the stuff that's being run against him. 20:32 Some of those things were said about me. 20:35 There were people who wanted to scare you about me. 20:39 And I put my faith in you. 20:44 And I think Abdul is putting his faith in you as well. 20:47 Yeah, I think that'll be good. 20:52 to other events as well in the midterms. 20:56 What do you think, just like writ large, 20:58 his value is at this moment, 21:00 and it's always like a tension between, 21:05 he wants a message that is relevant to now, 21:08 he doesn't want to just get people thinking about 21:11 the Obama years, but he also wants to be useful 21:14 and say something that's useful to people in the moment. 21:18 Yeah. The thing that he is so good at is sort of lift, and like lifting us above the trees 21:27 a little bit. I mean, I think people, the big issue across this country, the everyday cost of 21:35 things is a huge issue. The bigger issue is people feel like they're losing control of their 21:40 lives. They're losing their agency. And I think that's a lot of what 21:47 the AI issue is the data centers have a specific issue, 21:53 specific issues relative to the costs 21:55 that they will bring to communities. 21:57 But people feel like these things are being inflicted on them 21:59 and they feel like AI is being inflicted on them. 22:02 Now, I'm one who believes, you know, 22:03 AI could help solve some of the greatest problems 22:06 we face and it could also destroy us. 22:09 And I'd like to go through door A and not door B. 22:13 But I think the biggest thing is 22:15 I think, I was just talking to someone about this this morning, I think now, and going 22:21 into 2028, one of the great, I think, issues of our time are whether we, you know, whether 22:29 we're going to regain control of our own lives and whether the algorithms run our lives 22:35 or whether we run the algorithms and, you know, just to kind of like seize control 22:43 back and put it where it belongs in our democracy, 22:46 which is in the hands of people to help shape that future. 22:52 So I hope there's a little of that 22:54 and a little of, now this is therapeutic for me, 22:59 so you can send me a bill for this when I'm done, 23:01 but I'm feeling really good talking about it. 23:04 But I am so concerned 23:06 that we have this perverse set of incentives 23:08 in our media and in our politics, 23:12 that makes it profitable to divide people, 23:16 to demonize people, to separate us as Americans, 23:19 to make us believe that our neighbor is actually our enemy. 23:25 And I think we have to make that 23:29 part of what we're running against. 23:30 And frankly, these tech platforms 23:32 bear a lot of responsibility for that 23:34 because that's their profit model. 23:36 Yes. I think that is a huge, well, and it's, and it also speaks to the earlier point you made about AI and data centers, which is people feel like they don't have agency. 23:47 Yes. And they feel, and, and there's this feeling that because so much of our politics is mediated through these platforms that yelling and arguing about politics is an end to itself. 23:59 Yes. And so that if you like win a fight online. 24:01 Yes. 24:02 That's great. 24:02 But what did that do? 24:04 How many people did that cause to change their minds or vote or join an organization or run 24:09 for office? 24:10 Yes. 24:11 So we have this false sense of what it means to be active in politics and to participate 24:16 in politics. 24:17 Yes. 24:17 And part of it is, you know, people feel, I mean, part of the shame or the challenge 24:24 of the media environment is that people are just so jaundiced about what government can 24:33 do and what we can do together. But the other thing that they should be deeply worried about 24:42 is we are back to a period in our history where there is this tremendous concentration of wealth 24:48 and with that concentration this isn't about resentment. If Jeff Bezos wants to float around 24:53 on a yacht in the Mediterranean. God bless him. Good for him. This is about whether these people 25:00 have too much influence over policy decisions in Washington. Are they steering policy in their 25:07 favor and against the interests of everyday people? Just in 2024, there was an online 25:15 kids safety act that was passed in the United States. And I think it had 93 votes, a rare 25:21 bipartisan bill. The speaker of the house, Mike Johnson, never called it. Never called it for a 25:27 vote because he knew it would pass. And he and Mark Zuckerberg spent tens and tens and tens of 25:32 millions of dollars lobbying for that. How many decisions are being influenced in Washington 25:39 in that way? I think people suspect a lot. So we got to run against that too. 25:44 Let's talk about Maine, where Troy Jackson and Susan Collins debated twice this week. 25:48 Thursday night got pretty testy as well. Let's listen. When Donald Trump wants 25:54 something, Senator Collins will not stop him. And when she doesn't stop him, it 25:59 hurts manors. Senator Collins and her husband making money more off of this 26:03 war and so is the whole bunch of other people and that's why this doesn't 26:07 stop because they got us in another forever war that we're never gonna 26:11 get out of and people in the state are feeling the effects of it. That is 26:16 absolutely outrageous. And you owe me an apology. That is absolutely outrageous. 26:25 That's what this campaign is about. It's about people that know that this 26:28 government is fundamentally flawed and Susan Collins won't do anything about it. 26:33 She's powerful, torn in election time, but she's weak every time that we 26:37 need her to stand up and fight for us. So on that on the war profiteering hit, 26:41 But Jackson was referring to the stock that Collins and her husband own and a couple oil 26:46 companies and military defense contractors. 26:48 I thought that was a bad hit. 26:50 I was going to say, quite a bazooka to unleash. 26:53 There's plenty to say for Troy Jackson to say. 26:58 And I thought in the first debate earlier in the week, he made a really strong case 27:05 against Susan Collins. 27:06 I'll talk about that in a second. 27:07 it. But I don't think Mainers who've known her for all these years, they have a lot of 27:15 complaints about her, the idea that she's only bipartisan when it doesn't count and so on. 27:20 But I don't think any of them believe that she's motivated by, you know, for corrupt purposes. 27:26 And I thought that was a, I thought that if I were advising him, I would have said, 27:31 hey, stick that in your pocket and don't say that. I thought it watered his argument down. 27:36 did you faffs in the first debate though he said he had he said you know he 27:42 pointed out that she brags about voting against the big beautiful bill but she 27:47 actually allowed it to get to the floor of the Senate because she's the 27:50 chairman of the Appropriations Committee and and then he talked about a 27:54 health care and he said she's been a government employee all her life she's 27:57 never had to worry about paying for health care and she she objected 28:03 vehemently. She said, that is not true. In 1994, when I was running for governor, I had 28:09 no health care. 28:10 There was a few months period 30 years ago, where I was briefly not insured by the government. 28:17 Because I was running for governor. Yes. I mean, that was such a revealing exchange. 28:24 And I think, and he said, look, there are a lot of people in this state who don't 28:31 have those advantages who have to worry every day about how they're going to pay 28:34 for an illness if it happens who can't see a doctor and I'm you know I'm one 28:40 of them you know I'm one of I'm one of those people worked 80 hours a week to 28:44 and you know one of the things about this faffs is you know there is a kind 28:49 of forest gump kind of Ralph Cramden quality to Troy Jackson and there is a 28:57 kind of elite element to her argument, 29:00 which is a guy like this doesn't belong 29:02 in the United States Senate. 29:04 Yeah. 29:04 She seems offended by having to be on stage with him. 29:08 Yes, yes. 29:10 And also like that anyone's challenging her, 29:11 you know, seeking another term. 29:13 So the question is, 29:15 are college educated voters 29:17 and college educated women gonna walk away from him? 29:21 The data doesn't suggest that, 29:24 but is he gonna chip away 29:25 at a bunch of working class people in that state who think, 29:30 I mean, I think it's a pretty good argument 29:31 that maybe the Senate would work better 29:33 if there were a few people who actually know 29:35 what's going on in people's lives, you know? 29:38 This to me is another race, 29:39 and it's a little like Michigan, 29:41 in that he's got two objectives, right? 29:44 He's gotta tie her to Trump 29:46 or at least make the best argument about her 29:48 that is, as you were saying, believable 29:50 to the people in Maine who have voted for her 29:54 many times and many of whom like her even though they vote for Democrats for president. 29:58 And he, for some reason, has like the highest unfavorables of any Democratic Senate candidate 30:03 running in one of these really competitive races. 30:06 So he's got to tell a story about himself that reassures people. 30:11 And I wonder how you think about the balance and the tension between making the case 30:15 about Collins and then also making the case for himself. 30:19 Well, the thing about, you know, I've seen ads, I've seen the attack ads and 30:22 I've seen ads about him, and I think they're both important and both credible and they match 30:29 each other because his is very much about a lifetime in the working class and as an 30:38 advocate for the working class and framing her as a, you know, as a creature of Washington. 30:47 And, you know, I think that is the place that he, that is the place he needs to be. 30:54 This notion of her as someone who, you know, I think she will say, I cast a deciding vote 31:03 to save the Affordable Care Act. 31:05 And honestly, I'm grateful to her for that. 31:08 She also voted against the Affordable Care Act, you know, and there are so many examples 31:13 like that. 31:14 you know, I voted against the big beautiful bill. But as chair, she enabled it to get on 31:20 the floor of the house. You know, she tends to give the leader, she tends to stray from 31:26 the leadership when they don't need her vote. And, you know, the ACA was an admirable exception 31:34 to that. So, you know, the one thing I don't know, I saw a video of her from 2000, 31:42 from 1996 when she first ran, almost unrecognizable honestly, but she said, 31:49 if I can't get what I want done for, I'm here for two terms and two terms only and if I can't get 31:54 that done, I shouldn't be here. And then I saw her being interviewed on Fox and they said, 32:01 what about that? And she said, well, I found out that seniority is really important, 32:05 but she had been working in the Senate for six years before she ran. She was like 32:09 chairman of a subcommittee staff and she did not know that seniority was important. So, 32:15 I mean, I do think there's an element of enough's enough. And I think I'd work that a little in 32:21 the final stretch here too. And one of these where, because you know that a lot of Mainers 32:27 like her to sort of give them, like give people who voted for her. Yes, a permission 32:32 structure. Yeah, and be like, so like the gold watch strategy. Right. Yes, exactly. Yeah. 32:36 Thank you for your service. 32:38 That's great. 32:38 But you know what? 32:39 We let you say you've gotten all the stuff from Maine and thank you for everything you 32:42 have brought to Maine, but we're still hurting costs are still high. 32:45 We're still worried about our healthcare and like you haven't done anything about that. 32:48 Yeah. 32:48 And that's sort of a little bit of why I was uncomfortable with the, um, with 32:54 the attack on the, you know, that she was profiting off of the war. 32:59 I mean, that, that, that goes in the opposite direction of what you're suggesting. 33:03 But I wouldn't be surprised if he's smart, 33:06 he'll close with an ad of mayners saying 33:08 I voted for Susan Collins and I like her, 33:12 but it's time for a change. 33:16 And they can articulate some of the arguments 33:19 that will give people the ability to say that's me. 33:23 I feel that way too. 33:24 I don't have to hate Susan Collins not to vote for her. 33:35 This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. 33:37 If you thought about trying therapy 33:38 with our partner, BetterHelp, 33:40 insurance options may now be available nationwide 33:42 with an average copay for eligible members 33:45 of just $23 per session. 33:47 World Mental Health Day was on October 10th, 33:50 but stress and burnout can surface at any time, 33:53 unannounced regardless of what the calendar says. 33:55 True mental wellness isn't tied to a date on the calendar. 33:58 It's an ongoing daily commitment. 34:00 You don't need a huge life-altering event 34:02 to start therapy. 34:03 It's just as helpful for the everyday things, 34:05 a job that's eating up too much headspace, 34:07 a relationship that feels tricky, 34:08 or even just the subtle gut feeling that something is off. 34:11 Don't wait for World Mental Health Day to check in on yourself. 34:15 No one needs an annual day to know they need therapy. 34:18 We all have a lot going on. 34:19 The news sucks and is terrible and is scaring all the time. 34:22 We got AI reports about, you know, the robots killing us all. 34:26 There's stuff at work. 34:27 There's relationship issues. 34:28 Everyone would benefit from therapy. 34:30 What do you have to lose? 34:31 Give it a shot. 34:32 If you've been waiting to start therapy, 34:33 BetterHelp works with more than 125 health plan networks and eligible members have an 34:39 average copay of just $23 per session with insurance. 34:43 If you don't have insurance or don't live in the United States, you can still get 10% 34:46 off your first month. 34:48 Visit betterhelp.com slash PSA to explore your payment options. 34:53 That's betterhlp.com slash PSA. 35:02 We talked about some of the red state races earlier. 35:06 Yeah. 35:06 Texas looms large, and I think Ken Paxton is maybe the worst Republican candidate of the cycle, 35:13 incredible cycles. So that's obviously a big reason Taylorico may win. But how much do you 35:19 attribute what's happening in Texas to his appeal as a candidate, Taylorico's appeal? 35:24 And what do you think he's done right that, you know, Democrats may be able to learn from? 35:28 Yeah. Look, I think that he is the anti-Trump in some ways. He is appealing to people's common 35:39 humanity. I think the qualities, the faves that Trump lacks are going to be very much in demand 35:46 in the next few years, empathy, humility, you know, well, obviously integrity, but an impulse to 35:58 bring people together and so on. Talarico believes that, and he exudes that, and it's wrapped in 36:06 his faith, which is obviously quite, is quite sincere. And I think that's been good. He's 36:13 He's also an incredible communicator, and he's benefiting from the snapback among Hispanic 36:21 voters who Republicans thought somehow had pledged their fidelity to the party, regardless 36:26 of what they did, regardless—I mean, this is a community of working-class people and 36:31 small business people who are getting killed in the economy, but also Hispanic Americans 36:36 Americans who now are being targeted simply because they are Hispanic by ICE and they've 36:45 seen, you know, all of these stories unfold. 36:48 So he's benefited from that as well, and he's getting, you know, the kind of vote among 36:52 Hispanic voters that he will need to win this race, but he's also getting a pretty 36:59 good vote among white voters. 37:00 I think what's going to happen in this race is that you're going to see a much 37:04 larger than normal group of Republican voters who just skip the race. There's going to 37:10 be a big undervote for Paxton. And then on top of that, I think the libertarian candidate 37:15 there who got 2.4% in the last Senate race is going to do even better than that. And 37:20 I think it's going to almost all be people who want to register a protest against Paxton 37:26 but can't get all the way over to vote for Talarico. That will lower the threshold 37:32 for Talarico to win, he doesn't need to win 50% of the vote. 37:36 In that case, that's, there's a real path there. 37:39 I mean, he's close. 37:40 Yeah, but Texas has broken the hearts 37:43 of many Democrats many times. 37:45 So I think this could be different, you know, 37:48 and Paxton is a mess. 37:50 A mess. 37:50 One more debate from this week 37:51 I wanna get your thoughts on. 37:53 Mike Collins versus John Ossoff in a race 37:55 that Ossoff has just dominated from the start 37:57 despite Georgia being a state 37:59 that swung back to Trump in 24. 38:02 Let's watch a few clips. 38:04 This is a man who cheered on a group of young men who were mocking a black woman on a college 38:09 campus with monkey sounds. 38:12 If John Lewis were marching today from Selma to Montgomery, Mike Collins would be grabbing 38:18 a billy club. 38:20 His office has been in cahoots with some of the most notorious white supremacists 38:24 on the country. 38:25 He himself has amplified neo-Nazi propaganda. 38:29 He's never apologized for it and he should tonight. 38:33 Mike Collins voted to take that money out of your pocket and out of your community and 38:38 give it instead to data center developers and that's the problem Mike. 38:41 It's not just that you've hired half the third Reich to staff your congressional office 38:46 and you have promoted neo-nazi content online. 38:49 It's that you're robbing your constituents to subsidize your donors. 38:52 I want to know if you will commit to voting to repeal that data center tax scam that 38:56 you voted for. 38:57 what's your answer? This debate was like the most brutal thing I've ever seen. It was so, 39:06 you would teach off of this debate, you would teach off of it. I mean, I thought they were 39:12 going to have to remove Collins on a stretcher. I mean, here's what my reaction was like this whole 39:18 campaign, also has been doing these rally speeches that go viral and one of the reactions has been 39:23 and sure, he's good at the set piece teleprompter speeches, 39:27 but what about when there's no prompter? 39:29 And you know this well. 39:31 For all of Barack Obama's many talents, 39:33 landing debate zingers and memorable debate moments, 39:37 not really one of them, 39:39 what do you think of Ossoff's performance 39:41 and like what that says about his skills 39:44 as a politician and potentially a presidential candidate 39:47 if things go well and he decides? 39:49 Look, I think that he is a star, you know, he's the speeches that he's given, 39:55 and they've been very artful at packaging them in vertical videos that have gone viral. 40:02 It's helped him raise a lot of money, but it's also raised a lot of excitement among 40:08 Democrats. And here he shows, and you saw some of it in committee hearings, but here he shows 40:14 was an incredible facility for just completely controlling a debate from start to finish. 40:21 And obviously he's got a good memory and he rehearsed those interventions, but it came 40:31 across as very conversational and he completely dominated the terms of the debate. 40:38 I think, look, Asaf's going to win, and he's going to win by more than a few, and what's 40:45 going to happen next is going to be a stampede of people down to Atlanta to try and persuade 40:51 him to run for president. 40:56 My view of him is he's really exciting, interesting, and talented, and young, which I think 41:05 is hugely important. 41:06 And he's a member of the Senate, 41:08 but he seems like an outsider. 41:10 He seems like a guy who's trying to hold the Senate 41:12 to account, the government to account. 41:15 I think that's very important. 41:17 I haven't seen him smile. 41:19 I've never seen him smile. 41:21 I've never seen him. 41:22 He's always very severe. 41:25 So there are other elements of campaigning 41:28 that I would like to see. 41:32 I mean, you must have had him here. 41:37 but I don't know how he is sort of just basic conversation. 41:41 Yeah, it's not like he's stiff, right? 41:45 It's that he doesn't give you much. 41:48 Like he's very... 41:49 And you know what, you know how I feel about this. 41:53 Campaigns require, I call them MRIs for the soul, 41:56 presidential campaigns, people need to know who you are 42:00 and they'll find out who you are. 42:03 One of the things about Obama 42:04 was he could do all the events very well. He was very comfortable in conversation. He was 42:09 comfortable in any room he walked in. Even when cameras weren't there, he would go through 42:16 the kitchen on every time we arrived somewhere and spend time with people in the kitchen 42:21 and talk to them about their lives. He'd retain a lot of the stories that you ended 42:26 up using in your speeches were stories that he retained in his mind from conversations 42:31 with people. I don't know, you know, that we'll see about that. The campaign will 42:37 test that if he runs. There's one element of this, though, that we 42:43 should mention, which is if Democrats only win 51 seats, and assuming that 42:52 Senator Federman doesn't flee, which seems, you know, a little bit more 42:57 likely than not these days, I guess, that Senate seat in Georgia is going to be really 43:03 important. 43:03 And who is the governor of Georgia is going to be really important because the governor 43:07 of Georgia is going to have to appoint a replacement until a special election, which 43:13 would come, I think, in two years. 43:17 I think that's the way it works. 43:19 So they're actually what Keisha Lance Bottoms is is running a very strong race. She's in neck-in-neck 43:27 With Rick Jackson. I think his name is Rick Jackson the candidate there 43:32 but 43:35 If you know her winning is would be I think make it easier for us off certainly 43:40 Yeah, it's kind of you know, so that's that's a that's a side like this. But look, you know, I'm always excited by 43:48 by young dynamic leaders who can make appeals to idealism. 43:55 And in that, even though I said what I said earlier, 44:00 he did evoke in his comments throughout this debate 44:04 the experience of people. 44:06 I mean, it wasn't like he was divorced from that. 44:08 It wasn't so clinical, you know? 44:10 No, and then there's all these stories about, 44:13 like his constituent services in Georgia 44:15 and him calling just constituents all the time directly 44:19 to see how they're doing. 44:21 I can't tell what it is. 44:22 Like if he's just, he seems to be a very thoughtful person 44:28 who, and I heard him say this in some interview 44:30 where he's like, there's just been so much silliness 44:33 in politics that actually taking the time to think 44:35 about what you're gonna say 44:36 and being careful about what you're gonna say. 44:38 I feel like as a skill that, 44:40 or as something that's needed 44:42 that we haven't had in a while. 44:43 Yeah, it's a discipline. 44:44 And I wonder if part of this is discipline 44:46 for the race he's running and that, you know, 44:48 maybe we'll see more of him once the race is over. 44:53 But I think that- 44:54 Well, I mean, I hope he gets out there. 44:56 I think, you know, and as I said, 44:59 one of the things he's gonna have to be alert to 45:01 is that Obama learned is when you come out 45:05 with this kind of ballet who, you know, 45:08 you don't get the advantage other candidates 45:10 get to kind of work your material through in small groups. 45:13 You open right up on Broadway, and the critics are all lined up in the front row, and there's 45:18 a lot of pressure associated with that. 45:20 So everybody who runs for statewide office thinks, I'm good at this. 45:25 I can run for president. 45:26 And then they run for president and realize, oh, this is a whole different thing. 45:30 And it is. 45:31 And it should be because you're running for the most powerful and important office 45:35 on the planet. 45:44 Ponte America is brought to you by Buoy. 45:47 Electrolyte drinks are all the rage these days, but most of them are just natural flavor and stevia mixed with table salt. 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Get 31% off the liquid electrolyte discovery 47:00 set that includes additional drops for gut health, brain health, energy, immunity and more. 47:04 just add buoy.com slash cricket, code cricket. 47:07 And if you or someone you know is living with chronic illness, 47:09 buoy helps offset your healthcare costs 47:11 with their chronic illness lifetime support program. 47:13 It takes two minutes to apply. 47:19 You mentioned how people are often looking for, 47:23 and this is one of your more famous axisms 47:26 that people are looking for the remedy 47:29 and not the replica of the president who came before. 47:33 What potential democratic candidates do you think 47:36 sort of embody some of the qualities that people are 47:42 going to be looking for after the Trump era. 47:45 Well, you know, the hard part with Trump 47:47 is that there are a lot of things to remedy. 47:49 And the question is, the question is, 47:51 what are the ones that are most important to people? 47:54 I think almost all of them 47:56 they'll fit in that character basket. 47:59 You know, you know, humility, 48:06 integrity, empathy, I think is really important, because he shows none. 48:11 I think that's one of the reasons why Joe Biden beat him in 2020, because Biden had predinatural 48:18 empathy, and he seemed like a guy from small town America, from Scranton, who could relate 48:24 to the experience of everyday people, and some of that will be important. 48:30 Secondly, I do think because of the unbelievable level of corruption we've seen, I think people 48:38 want to give Washington an angioplasty, and they want to hold our institutions to account. 48:45 And there I think Asaf has leaped ahead of the field because he has been such a strong 48:52 voice on corruption, and not just the corruption of Trump, but the corruption of the process 48:58 by which decisions are made. 49:01 So I think that will be really important. 49:03 And I think youth will be important. 49:05 I don't think this is, 49:06 we've gone through the experiment 49:07 with a couple of out-of-genarians. 49:09 I don't think people are gonna be looking for more. 49:12 And I think that's why the whole field 49:14 is gonna be much younger. 49:16 I think being from outside of Washington also will be. 49:19 I mean, I think the governors 49:20 may have a bit of an advantage, 49:22 although I think Asaf, as I said, 49:23 doesn't read like Washington. 49:25 and so he might escape that. 49:28 One thing I've been thinking about the governors is like I feel like the ability to draw attention 49:36 to inspire people to get people excited is even more important in this information 49:44 environment where that's just so crowded and noisy and sometimes I wonder if 49:48 these governors who might be very popular in their states because they've just 49:55 are going to be adept at figuring out how to draw attention 50:00 in a crowded national information environment like this. 50:04 That is one of the new tests, right? 50:07 That's a relatively new test, but absolutely. 50:10 I think that's gonna be important. 50:13 I mean, as I said, one of the reasons Asaf 50:15 has done well is because they understood this. 50:19 And so, you know, yeah, he made these speeches, 50:21 but they also knew how to cut them up and get them out. 50:25 and make them go viral. 50:28 Honestly, my old buddy, Rahm Emanuel, 50:31 and your old boss in the White House, 50:34 he's been pretty creative about getting attention as well. 50:41 And I think he'll be a factor in this thing, I mean. 50:44 But it is like, when I go through the, 50:45 it's like, Rahm's good at that, 50:47 Ossoff, Pete, AOC, Newsome, 50:51 You can say whether the attention all these folks are getting are helpful or not, but like 50:57 that's like a list of people who I think know how to sort of draw attention to themselves. 51:02 Yeah. 51:03 I mean, one thing we should say is I've always said authenticity is a coin of the realm in 51:07 presidential races. 51:08 So it's good to be viral. 51:10 It's also good not to look like you're kind of full of shit. 51:13 Right. 51:14 That's important. 51:15 That is important. 51:16 So you, you know, and a lot of those folks would, would or not that way, um, you know, uh, I know 51:23 Rom has his fans and his, uh, and his detractors, but, um, you know, he, he does believe things, 51:32 certain things. And he's telling, you know, he's very straightforward. And he says it, 51:36 you know, AOC is a great communicator on this level. I just, you know, you may know more 51:41 than I, um, I mean, I just don't know if she's going to run. 51:44 I was going to ask you because you asked for that at the IOP and that the answer kind of 51:48 went viral and then she talked to The Times again and it was interesting that quote she gave them, 51:54 which is, you know, life doesn't wait for you to be ready for things. Sometimes life just makes 51:58 things ready for you, which reminds me of what Obama was being told back in 06 and 07. 52:04 But I couldn't tell which way she was leaning. 52:07 There are other things she said that make you, and what she said to me, 52:12 that make you wonder about whether she thinks this, this is the right time for her. You know, 52:20 she's 36 years old. She wants to have a life. We now know she wants to have children because 52:26 she's talked about that. That's, you know, running for president makes those things almost 52:33 prohibitive. And she has to feel like she's ready. You know, if others may feel she's 52:41 She has to feel that she's ready, just ready in terms of her level of performance and so on. 52:51 And the Senate seat's sitting there in New York. I mean, I think if she decides she wants to run 52:56 for the Senate, I don't know that. I think Senator Schumer probably isn't going to run 53:00 anyway. I don't know that, but I suspect. And I think he certainly would not if she did. 53:07 So, you know, and she would not be just another senator, you know, I've said, you know, I 53:14 don't want to disparage, but there are a number of senators I could think of who can 53:17 walk down the hall in relative anonymity. 53:20 She would not be one of those. 53:22 Everybody would want to know what she thinks. 53:24 Yeah. 53:25 One thing she said more recently that sort of raised some eyebrows is she was doing 53:30 a fundraiser for Abdul in New York and she said, if Abdul can win Michigan, it 53:34 means anyone can win anywhere. 53:37 Yeah. 53:37 I don't know. 53:38 And I thought about that for like, 53:39 what the argument is gonna be just broadly post midterm 53:44 as we head into 2028, you know, 53:47 we'll get back to the, there'll be some candidates 53:48 who are more progressive and some less 53:51 and then we're gonna get into electability again. 53:53 And I wonder what you thought about that argument. 53:55 Well, first of all, one of the other things 53:58 she said to Shane Goldmucker at The Times 54:03 was that essentially she didn't want to run a kind of Pyrrhic race. If she ran, she wasn't 54:13 going to run to win and she needed to know. So you fit those two together and that's interesting. 54:19 Look, what I hope, primaries should be a robust discussion within a party about the 54:26 direction of what are the right paths. 54:30 I find the whole discussion of, you know, will the center right win, will the progressives 54:35 win with it. 54:36 We are faced with such monumental challenges in this country. 54:41 I think every year, and I've got a lot more than you, but every election year we say, 54:46 well, this is the most important election in history, and it becomes a cliche. 54:52 This really may be the most important. 54:54 And certainly in my lifetime, just because of the crush, you know, AI and the discussion 55:01 what to do about dead and climate, and of course, how do you build an economy that 55:09 works for people and give people their best opportunity? 55:12 I mean, all of these things are crushing in on us. 55:16 And we need wisdom and we need to have a bigger discussion than whether team A 55:22 or team B triumphs in the intramurals and then whether they who wins in them, you know, 55:27 this should be more than about that kind of a discussion. 55:30 We need thoughtful ideas. 55:32 And the problem is that, you know, the incentives and politics are to weaponize differences 55:39 rather than take the best from all of them. 55:43 Last question about this, and I'll let you go, like, what do you think the central 55:47 question that the next Democratic nominee has to answer about the country and about the party? 55:54 Well, first of all, and I know this wasn't a first of all question, but I just want to make 55:57 two points about it. One is, I think the wrong impulse is to say, Trump has done a tear down, 56:06 there's no doubt about it. The blast radius from him we're going to be feeling for, 56:10 he is one of the most impactful presidents in American history for better and worse. 56:17 mostly for worse. There's some things he have torn down that probably we should rethink anyway 56:23 because they may not have been working as well as they should. But the one thing I know is 56:30 when he became president because people weren't happy with the status quo and with our politics, 56:36 so to say, we're just going to restore everything that he destroyed and we're just 56:41 going to put everything back the way they were is a losing argument. And it's a bad argument. 56:48 It's the wrong argument. We have an opportunity to build something new that's more resilient 56:54 to corruption, you know, resistant to corruption, more responsive to the real life concerns 57:01 of people, more able and agile to solve some of these big problems we're facing, 57:06 more designed to bring us together and rip us apart and so I think someone who 57:13 speaks at that level is going to be a more powerful candidate. This is you know 57:21 a big moment for the country and I hope we've always had the genius to 57:28 elevate people at the right moment. I kind of thought of Argy as one of them 57:36 And I'm hoping, I have a lot of American people 57:39 take such a beating, you know, 57:42 people think voters are stupid, they're not, you know? 57:47 And I'm hoping that they see in someone the depth 57:55 and the wisdom that we need at this moment. 57:59 And that's why I can't wait for this primary to start. 58:02 but I've been waiting since 2023 for a primary, so. 58:06 Me too, me too. 58:07 I know, I'm very excited for it too. 58:09 I look forward to it with trepidation, 58:12 but also hope that all the things you just said 58:16 will happen and that someone will elevate someone 58:18 who can actually meet the moment. 58:20 Yeah, well, you've written the word hope 58:22 a lot of time and a lot of places, John. 58:24 And the thing about you is that I know you also 58:27 to believe it and that you are an apostle of hope 58:31 and possibility, which is why I love you 58:34 and why so many people are interested 58:37 in what you have to say. 58:39 Well, same to you, my friend. 58:40 I learned it all from you, so thank you. 58:43 Right, thank you. 58:44 Thanks for joining. 58:45 I'll talk to you soon. 58:46 All right, thank you. 58:48 Bye, X. 58:48 That's it for this episode of Pod Save America. 58:50 Thanks to David Axelrod for joining me. 58:52 Love it, Tommy and I will be back on Tuesday. 58:55 Pod Save America is a crooked media production. 58:57 Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Michael Goldsmith 59:00 with Ree Cherlin, Elijah Cone, and Adrian Hill. 59:02 Our team includes Matt DeGroot, Ben Hefkot, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Kenny Moffitt, 59:06 Adam Lippert, Joseph Dutra, Desmond Taylor, Dan Farrell, David Tolles, Mia Kellman, Ryan 59:10 Young, and Naomi Sengel. 59:11 Our staff is probably unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.
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