The AI Trade Is Repeating the Dot-Com Cycle | Mark Yusko

The Last Trade: Mark Yusko, CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, joins to call the SpaceX IPO and the broader AI capex wave the greatest bubble in the history of markets, why Elon's $1 trillion XAI revenue promise by 2030 is securities fraud, how DeepSeek is poised to break the AI bubble by doing what OpenAI and Anthropic do for 5 cents on the dollar, why Bitcoin's Metcalf's Law fair value already sits around $125,000 even as price trades closer to $60K, his specific October 5 cycle-bottom call for the next crypto spring, and the brutal truth that the 1986 Tax Act and the rise of the 401k were a heist on the American middle class.

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The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

Mark Yusko, CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, joins Jackson and Michael to reframe the current setup as a classic late-cycle bubble forming around AI and SpaceX while Bitcoin sits hated and on sale. He calls Elon's $1 trillion XAI revenue tweet a textbook securities fraud, shows how the Intel pattern from 1990 to 2000 (up 20x, then down 87%) is repeating in semiconductors today, and explains why a SpaceX moon data center is physically impossible. On the bullish side: DeepSeek doing what OpenAI and Anthropic do at 5 cents on the dollar, Metcalf's Law fair value for Bitcoin sitting around $125,000 (per Tim Peterson at N Squared Value), and Mark's specific October 5, 2026 cycle-bottom call with crypto spring to follow. Plus the three-bucket savings framework, why 99.5% of prediction-market accounts lose money, and why the 1986 Tax Act was a quiet heist on corporate pension funds.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 - Introduction and Consistency in Podcasting

02:56 - The Challenges of Building and Execution

08:37 - The Intersection of Sports and Market Trends

09:02 - Market Sentiment: AI, SpaceX, and Digital Assets

19:21 - The Bubble of Innovation and SpaceX's Promises

28:10 - Liquidity Cycles and Capital Allocation in Markets

40:55 - The Evolution of Networks and Value

51:46 - Understanding Market Dynamics: Investors vs. Traders vs. Gamblers

01:01:51 - The Importance of Long-Term Investment Strategies

01:09:30 - The Role of Innovation in Wealth Creation

01:17:52 - Final Thoughts on Investing and Gambling

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