Interest Rates, Oil Prices, and What We're Watching in Q4

Stocks looked relatively quiet in the third quarter. Under the surface, there was a lot more going on.

Interest rates moved sharply higher. Oil prices climbed. A small group of mega-cap stocks continued to drive much of the market's performance. Meanwhile, bonds are offering yields investors haven't seen in years, and another midterm election is approaching.

As we celebrate the 100th episode of OFF THE WALL, David B. Armstrong, CFA, and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM, look back at what drove markets in Q3—and, more importantly, what they're watching as the year winds down.

They unpack the move in the 10-year Treasury yield from roughly 4.45% to 5.3%, including the role higher oil prices played in pushing rates up. They also look beneath the major indexes at market breadth and why the Magnificent 7 surged in September while the average stock lagged behind.

Then, they turn to fixed income. With yields at levels investors haven't seen in years, Dave and Nate explain why bonds may have earned "a real seat at the table" again—and how owning individual bonds can create opportunities to lock in yields, manage taxes and build around specific cash flow needs.

Finally, they look ahead to two issues that could shape the months ahead: the expanding conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on oil and inflation, and the 2026 midterm elections. What does history tell us about market performance around midterms? And does it actually matter to the market which party wins?

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Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

00:00 - Milestone Welcome

2:02 - Q3 Scoreboard And Calm Markets

5:59 - Oil And Rates Drive The Tape

6:59 - Mag 7 Surge And Weak Breadth

14:51 - TINA Ends Bonds Rejoin Portfolios

17:40 - Building Bond Portfolios With Intent

27:53 - Middle East Oil Routes And Inflation

33:51 - Midterm Gridlock And Q4 Tailwinds

42:48 - AMA Questions And Subscribe

44:11 - Disclosures And Risk Reminder

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About "Off the Wall":

Markets move fast, and headlines rarely tell the full story. Off The Wall cuts through the noise with unfiltered market and economic insight from Monument's CEO David B. Armstrong, CFA and Portfolio Manager Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM. Tune in for the conversations that actually explain what's moving your portfolio, without the Wall Street spin.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com