Good Quarter or Bad Quarter? Depends on What You Were Watching

The headlines said Q1 2026 was rough. The data we're watching tells a different story.

In this Q1 Market review, Dave Armstrong and Nate Tonsager set aside the noise — yes, including the Iran conflict they've already covered at length — and dig into what was actually happening beneath the surface of the markets in Q1 2026. Spoiler: it was a lot more interesting than a -3.5% S&P 500 reading suggests.

Nate kicks things off with an underappreciated housing market update: prices are easing without mortgage rates having to do the heavy lifting — and why that's actually a healthy sign for the broader economy. Dave follows with a breakdown of what the market's internal health really looked like last quarter, using sector performance data to show how energy, materials, utilities, consumer staples, and industrials were quietly carrying significant weight while big tech grabbed all the negative headlines.

Then the conversation turns to Bitcoin. Nate pulls no punches: in his view, Bitcoin is a trading asset — not an investing asset, not digital gold. Dave riffs on why he'd call it something closer to "digital guessing" — and why that's not necessarily a dealbreaker, as long as you're honest about what you're doing and how much of your portfolio you're putting at risk. Think of it like the casino: a few chips on the roulette table is fine. Going all in on red? That's a different conversation.

It's one of their favorite episode formats — no guests, no guardrails, just two portfolio strategists riffing on what actually mattered last quarter and what investors should be paying attention to going into Q2.

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Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

0:00 — Opening Claim: Bitcoin Is Not an Investment

0:22 — Welcome and Q1 Quarterly Review Setup

1:49 — Housing Affordability Is Quietly Getting Better

5:24 — Supply Is Up and 2008 Fears Are Overblown

9:38 — Why Q1 Looked Worse Than It Really Was

11:28 — Moving Averages, Market Breadth and Hidden Strength

13:04 — The Sectors That Quietly Won the Quarter

15:51 — Concentration Risk and Data Driven Rotation

20:21 — Bitcoin Is a Trading Asset, Not an Investment

29:54 — Crypto, Gold and the Art of Educated Guessing

33:24 — Closing Thoughts, Brackets and How to Reach Us

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About "Off the Wall":

Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts Dave Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com