The 10-Year Just Hit 5%. What Breaks First?

September 15, 2026 — The 10-year Treasury is back around 5%, borrowing costs are at levels not seen in nearly two decades, and Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor are asking the question that usually follows: what breaks first? They examine where higher rates are already creating stress — from housing and commercial real estate to indebted small caps and AI infrastructure companies — and why a higher cost of capital may expose weaknesses that were much easier to hide when money was cheap. Zach and Chase also discuss rapidly tightening oil markets, rising diesel prices, geopolitical supply disruptions and the increasingly difficult choice facing the Federal Reserve as inflation remains elevated.

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