Chad Cascarilla – Update on Tail Risk - [Invest Like the Best, EP.165]

My guest today is Chad Cascarilla, here to discuss some of the tail risks in the economy and markets as of March 24th in the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic. Chad was one of the most successful investors during the global financial crisis with a specialty in the banking and finance systems. He now runs Paxos, a trust company which trades and custodies unique products like pax gold, bitcoin, and other tokenized assets including simple pax dollars. I feel it is important to avoid confirmation bias in times like this and not just talk to people are optimistic or long, and while I still believe this is ultimately a positive and optimistic conversation, Chad acknowledges and outlines scenarios that few are talking about yet in the markets. This episode is brought to by Koyfin. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag Show Notes (2:04) – (First question) – Today’s market and the porridge scenario (7:38) – Risks to the market that people aren’t focused on (10:54) – What lessons from 2008 do we need to heed this time (13:07) – How does he think about inflation on the other side of this crisis (16:02) – What does a too cold recovery look like (20:35) – Benefits of nationalizing the banks vs pumping liquidity (24:13) – What does the just right recovery look like (25:24) – Assets that might be ideal to hold in a too hot or too cold scenario (29:00) – His take on how Bitcoin has performed during this crisis (31:53) – The US’s inherent strengths compared to the rest of the global economy (34:50) – Advice for people (38:59) – Paxos.com (39:48) – What is he monitoring to see which way things shake out Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag