The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its draconian trade war policies, culminating this week in a substantial markdown in the tariff on China. We no longer see a US recession as likely but still see growth being weak over the rest of the year and also note downside risks if the trade war re-escalates. This podcast was recorded on May 16, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
