Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today’s macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-driven CapEx boom, the economic effects of tariffs, Fed independence under Trump, and why the current setup could produce extreme outcomes in either direction. Topics covered: Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing Andy’s Four-Pillar Framework: growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows How AI CapEx is driving growth — and what happens when it stops Tariffs, policy shifts, and their impact on inflation and growth The Fed’s independence and what it means for markets Risk premia, volatility, and asset allocation in uncertain environments How major flows and corporate buybacks shape market direction Why Andy sees a “digital” macro environment with binary outcomes Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and setup 02:00 Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing 14:00 The Four-Pillar Framework explained 22:00 Growth outlook and AI-driven CapEx boom 33:00 The real impact of tariffs on the economy 39:00 Thinking in probabilities and constructing macro portfolios 40:00 Fed independence and policy alignment 47:00 Labor market dynamics and AI uncertainty 48:30 Risk premia and asset allocation 56:00 Flows, buybacks, and corporate debt 01:00:00 What Andy’s watching next 01:06:00 Why macro outcomes have never been more digital
