Devin Elliot is a former pro snowboarder turned software engineer who has logged thousands of hours building AI systems. His P(Doom) is a flat ⚫. He argues that worrying about an AI takeover is as irrational as fearing your car will sprout wings and fly away. We spar over the hard limits of current models: Devin insists LLMs are hitting a wall, relying entirely on external software “wrappers” to feign intelligence. I push back, arguing that raw models are already demonstrating native reasoning and algorithmic capabilities. Devin also argues for decentralization by claiming that nuclear proliferation is safer than centralized control. We end on a massive timeline split: I see superintelligence in a decade, while he believes we’re a thousand years away from being able to “grow” computers that are truly intelligence. Timestamps 00:00:00 Episode Preview00:01:03 Intro: Snowboarder to Coder00:03:30 "I Do Not Have a P(Doom)"00:06:47 Nuclear Proliferation & Centralized Control00:10:11 The "Spotify Quality" House Analogy00:17:15 Ideal Geopolitics: Decentralized Power00:25:22 Why AI Can't "Fly Away"00:28:20 The Long Addition Test: Native or Tool?00:38:26 Is Non-Determinism a Feature or a Bug?00:52:01 The Impossibility of Mind Uploading00:57:46 "Growing" Computers from Cells01:02:52 Timelines: 10 Years vs. 1,000 Years01:11:40 "Plastic Bag Ghosts" & Builder Intuition01:13:17 Summary of the Debate01:15:30 Closing Thoughts Links Devin’s Twitter — https://x.com/devinjelliot --- Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates , or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
